Prigozhin's 11th Hour Mutiny Reversal

Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin realized he had "gone too far" in his rebellion as his troops were barreling toward Moscow, it has been reported.

Prigozhin turned his forces back from the Russian capital on Saturday, but not before he had seized military facilities in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don and called for a toppling of Russia's military leadership.

As the mutiny was unfolding, Prigozhin "tried to call Putin" at midday on Saturday, but the president "didn't want to speak with him," the independent Russian language outlet Meduza reported, citing Kremlin sources.

By that stage, his fighters were on their way to the Russian capital, approaching the Oka River, where the Russian army and the National Guard had set up a line of defense.

Despite Prigozhin's claims that "half the army" of Russia would join him, his troops got no extra backing from soldiers in the first hours of the uprising, according to Meduza. The outlet's sources said the Wagner founder probably realized "he'd gone too far" and that the "prospects for his column to continue to advance were dim."

Meduza reported that the Kremlin had probably realized that Prigozhin's calculations had changed and moved to avoid a "bloody confrontation" with Wagner.

"I think he never really considered taking power," Konstantin Sonin, a Russian-born political economist and professor at the University of Chicago, told Newsweek.

Wagner forces may have have had experience in Africa at the frontline of insurgencies and coups, but in Moscow would not have had the numbers to prop up the seizure for instance, of the Russian ministry of defense.

"Unless they had pledges of allegiance from security forces and army troops, they wouldn't be controlling anything," he told Newsweek.

Negotiations had reportedly started on June 23, Meduza said, when Prigozhin announced his "march of justice" after months of condemning Russia's defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, and chief of the general staff of the armed forces, Valery Gerasimov.

Prigozhin's demands were "vague," the outlet noted. He wanted Shoigu gone, autonomy over Wagner and more funding, although after an armed rebellion, his fighters wouldn't have had a role in the system.

The Kremlin then ordered politicians to condemn Prigozhin, and Putin described the Wagner Group's actions as "treason."

Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and founder of R.Politik, a political analysis firm, tweeted that Prigozhin had been caught off guard by Putin's reaction and "found himself unprepared to assume the role of a revolutionary."

She added that he wasn't prepared for Wagner reaching Moscow, where his only option would be take the Kremlin, which "would inevitably result in him and his fighters being eradicated."

Talks on Saturday were said to have included the Kremlin's chief of staff, Anton Vaino, the secretary of Russia's Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, and the Russian ambassador to Belarus, Boris Gryzlov. Belarus's president, Alexander Lukashenko, took the lead role.

Under the terms of the deal brokered by Lukashenko, Prigozhin will move to Belarus. As of Monday morning, Prigozhin's whereabouts couldn't be verified beyond his departure from Rostov-on-Don late on Saturday, where he was backed by cheering crowds.

Meanwhile, the implications of the Lukashenko-Prigozhin deal for the leadership of the Russian ministry of defense are uncertain.

"I'm pretty sure that Prigozhin would not appear in a place in which he would not be surrounded by significant military force," said Sonin. "The more interesting question is what they're going to do with the Wagner formations that participated in this because this is a real force.

"They need to disarm them but in these camps, in which Wagner will be placed, they will be very heavily armed. They will probably resist any attempts to separate them from each other."

Some Russian sources have suggested that there could be changes in Russia's military leadership. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Sunday that would represent a "significant victory for Prigozhin."

"I cannot see anything that could be good for Putin from this," said Sonin. "It's a symptom that people are very unhappy with his leadership. It's also a signal to everyone that he is not that strong."