Vladimir Putin's Major Dilemma Exposed After Soledar Gains: Igor Girkin

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Moscow's claim its forces have captured Soledar means President Vladimir Putin will have to make a tough decision on how to balance competing interests among those fighting in his invasion in Ukraine, according to former Russian commander Igor Girkin.

Russia's military said on Friday it had captured the Donetsk town, allowing it to push on towards the city of Bakhmut nine miles south, and the scene of fierce fighting for months. Kyiv has rejected this and said the fight for Soledar is ongoing.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has taken a strong personal stake in the operation in which his troops were heavily involved, although the Russian Ministry of Defense did not initially acknowledge the role of the private military company (PMC) in the battle.

The Russian Defense Ministry later recognized the participation of Wagner troops as a fight develops over who should take credit for the purported advance.

Russian President Vladimir Putin
Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence, outside Moscow, on January 11, 2023. MIKHAIL KLIMENTYEV/Getty Images

Girkin said on his Telegram social media channel that there was an "acute conflict" between unofficial forces such as Wagner and the traditional Russian military command, a situation which during a war he believed was "completely unacceptable."

He said the chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov, now in charge of the Ukraine campaign, posed a risk for Wagner because he and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu want to subordinate, or even disband, Wagner and transfer its troops and equipment to the overall Russian military effort.

This would remove all of those whom Shoigu and Gerasimov personally consider "hostile" for themselves and dangerous politically, said Girkin, a military blogger who has been critical of Russia's war effort.

Prigozhin is an ally of Putin and is said to have the ear of the president but Girkin's comments have "exposed a major dilemma" for the Russian president, according to the Institute for the Study of War think tank (ISW).

Girkin said Putin "must act as arbiter" between what appear to be competing interests of Prigozhin and the Ministry of Defense.

The options are for Wagner to retain its role in the war, or for Prigozhin to be sidelined, which would end his political influence. The latter case would strengthen the position of Shoigu, although would not please Putin's inner circle, Girkin said.

In a swipe at Putin's distancing of himself from the military failures in Ukraine, Girkin said that "the most normal way out of the current situation would be for Putin to personally accept the role of commander-in-chief."

"However, the president has been stubbornly evading personal responsibility for the actions of the troops in the war for almost 11 months," Girkin wrote, adding Putin would have to choose between sidelining Prigozhin, deal "a strong blow to Shoigu—or take up the matter himself."

The ISW said Putin's bid to balance Russian Ministry of Defense support, distancing himself from military failures, and exploiting Prigozhin's parallel military forces, "may have ramifications on his power."

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry for comment.

About the writer

Brendan Cole is a Newsweek Senior News Reporter based in London, UK. His focus is Russia and Ukraine, in particular the war started by Moscow. He also covers other areas of geopolitics including China. Brendan joined Newsweek in 2018 from the International Business Times and well as English, knows Russian and French. You can get in touch with Brendan by emailing b.cole@newsweek.com or follow on him on his X account @brendanmarkcole.


Brendan Cole is a Newsweek Senior News Reporter based in London, UK. His focus is Russia and Ukraine, in particular ... Read more