Russians Increasingly Anxious as Ukraine War Turns Sour: Poll

Vladimir Putin's partial mobilization decree appears to have raised concerns among ordinary Russians about the expanding nature of the war in Ukraine, a state-backed pollster said.

The prevailing mood among the relatives, friends, colleagues and acquaintances was now one of unease, according to 69 percent of respondents to the latest survey by Russia's Public Opinion Foundation, or FOM, published on September 29. Twenty-six percent of those polled reported a state of calm.

The elevated levels of anxiety were a 34-point spike from just one week earlier when the previous FOM poll had also recorded nearly one in six (57 percent) feeling no distress among their friends or family.

Russia's president ordered the partial mobilization on September 21.

The results represent the first time since late April that anxious sentiments have overtaken those of calm. The prevalence of critical comments directed at Russian authorities also increased by nine points to 43 percent, according to the pollster, which said it collected 1,500 valid samples between September 23 and 25.

Moscow's decision to mobilize 300,000 nominally battle-hardened troops for deployment in Ukraine came shortly after Kyiv retook large amounts of occupied territory in successful counteroffensives. Last week, the Kremlin moved to consolidate its gains from the seven-month invasion by formally annexing Ukrainian regions in the east and south of the country.

The sharp rise in feelings of unease among Russian citizens could reflect growing dissatisfaction over the Kremlin's intention to introduce wider society into its war effort, said Oleg Ignatov, a senior analyst with the Brussels-based Crisis Group think tank.

"There is an official narrative that Russia is not at war, that Russia is conducting a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine, and that everything is evolving according to plan. But if Putin has declared mobilization, it means the plan isn't working," Ignatov told Newsweek.

Russian society has, by and large, tolerated Putin's political ambitions as part of a compromise, an informal social contract that guaranteed relative stability and economic prosperity for the public in exchange for a certain degree of indifference in the last two decades, Ignatov explained.

After the outbreak of war in Ukraine, the Russian public was shocked but saw it as the Kremlin's choice—and ultimately the Kremlin's responsibility.

"People understand that politics is the Kremlin's business. If it's successful, we will totally support it, even be inspired and enthusiastic about Crimea, Syria and others," Ignatov said. "But it doesn't touch us at all. If you fail, it will be your failure; it will not be our personal failure."

The mobilization order—the first since 1941—began the "direct involvement of Russian society into this war," he said. "The war has come to Russia, and it's a termination of the social contract."

But the shifting sentiments "won't transform into active actions against the authorities," according to Ignatov. "The main form of resistance now is evasion."

The latest findings by FOM, one of Russia's three big pollsters, also were consistent with those of a recent Levada Center survey, which reported a slight decline in Putin's approval ratings.

But polling about Putin should be read cautiously, said Ignatov, who argued there was little enthusiasm for war among the majority of the population. "Most [respondents] tend to give socially acceptable answers."

Russia's true nation mood will remain a challenge to gauge. "It's difficult to discuss public opinion in a society that doesn't have public opinion. It doesn't have free media, public discussion or political competition," he said.