Russian and Belarusian Forces Unlikely to Attack Ukraine From North: ISW

Russian and Belarusian ground forces remain unlikely to attack Ukraine from Belarusian territory to the north, despite President Alexander Lukashenko's warning on Monday that Belarus would join forces with Moscow in the war, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Lukashenko, who has held power in Belarus since 1994, said on Monday that Belarus and Russia agreed to deploy the Regional Grouping of Forces (RGV) — a strategic formation of Russian and Belarusian units that defend the two countries, or Union State, the think tank noted in its daily update on the conflict on Tuesday.

Lukashenko said that strikes on Belarus were being planned by Ukraine, without providing evidence. The dictator added that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed on Friday on an unspecified "deployment" of the Russian-Belarusian RGV in "connection with the escalation on the western borders of the Union State."

Lukashenko said more than 1,000 Russian military personnel will be deployed to Belarus and that the RGV began forming on Saturday, but he did not provide further details on the deployment.

Separately, Russia used Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones from Crimea and Belarus to strike several Ukrainian cities, including the capital Kyiv early on Monday, targeting civilians and critical infrastructure, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video address after the attacks.

The bombings appeared to be in response to the bombing of the critical Kersh bridge that connects the Russian occupied Crimean Peninsula to mainland Russia. Ukraine did not officially claim responsibility, but its officials celebrated on social media.

In its daily report on Tuesday, the ISW said that the Russian part of any RGV formations in Belarus will likely be comprised of "low-readiness mobilized men or conscripts who likely will not pose a significant conventional military threat to Ukraine."

The ISW said that Russian component of the RGV is made up of elements of the 1st Guard Tank Army, 20th Combined Arms Army, and airborne units, which have "all sustained heavy combat losses in Ukraine and have a severely reduced combat capacity."

Ukrainian reports from late September, saying that Belarus was preparing to accept 20,000 mobilized Russian men, signalled that Russia hopes to use Belarusian military facilities and infrastructure to hold and potentially train new troops.

But the ISW said it remains "exceedingly unlikely" that this will lead to Belarusian involvement in Ukraine on Russia's behalf.

Dr Peter Caddick-Adams, a military analyst, agrees. "Belarus is a weak and unwilling partner in all of this. However, Lukashenko is reliant on Russian security and energy," he told Newsweek.

"But he will do his best not to actually invade or engage in combat with Ukraine. His support has so far been limited to hosting Russian forces, and allowing air strikes from his terrain. Actual invasion would be hugely unpopular, contested by his population.

"If he fell from power, he would be replaced by Putin. So he clings on, doing the bare minimum to support his ally, between a rock and a hard place," said Caddick-Adams.

The ISW said that the political cost to Lukashenko for direct involvement in the war will be too high, but the Kremlin may seek to use additional Russian forces in Belarus to monitor Ukrainian forces near Kyiv and prevent their redeployment elsewhere to participate in counter-offensives.

The think tank said it believes that Russia does not have the ability to form a ground strike force from scratch or from existing units in Belarus quickly.

Supporting this theory, the Ukrainian General Staff said in a Facebook post on Monday that it has not observed indicators of Russian forces forming offensive groups in Belarus and explicitly said there is no threat of an imminent attack from Belarusian territory.