Russian Black Sea Fleet Repositioning Has Potential for Violence: U.K.

Russia has repositioned its Black Sea Fleet following the termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, and there is now the potential for an increase in violence in the area, Britain's Defense Ministry said.

In its daily assessment, defense officials in the United Kingdom said that since Russia pulled out of the hard-fought Black Sea grain export deal, the Black Sea Fleet has "altered its posture...in preparedness to enforce a blockade on Ukraine."

Moscow announced on July 17 that it was pulling out of the deal, which was due for its fourth renewal. The Black Sea Grain Initiative allowed the safe exports of Ukraine's grain and agricultural products to global markets. The United Nations has said Russia's decision to terminate it would "strike a blow to people in need everywhere."

Since the deal's termination, Russia has deployed the Russian corvette Sergey Kotov to patrol the shipping lane between the Bosphorus and Odesa.

The British Defense Ministry said there is "a realistic possibility that it will form part of a task group to intercept commercial vessels Russia believes are heading to Ukraine."

The Black Sea Grain Initiative has moderated the involvement of the Black Sea in the war, and there is now "the potential for the intensity and scope of violence in the area to increase," according to the intelligence update from the U.K.

Newsweek reached out to Russia's Foreign Ministry via email for comment.

The European Council said it "condemns unequivocally" Russia's decision to terminate the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

"With its decision, Russia is further exacerbating the global food security crisis it created by its war of aggression against Ukraine and its blockade of Ukrainian sea ports. Russia must cease illegally blocking Ukrainian sea ports and allow freedom of navigation on the Black Sea," the council said in a statement.

The deal had been crucial for ensuring the export of Ukraine's grain to global markets, helping vulnerable populations in need, it said.

Two days after Russia pulled out of the deal, the Russian Defense Ministry said that it may consider civilian ships in the Black Sea en route to Ukrainian ports legitimate military targets.

In response, Ukraine's Defense Ministry said on July 20 that Kyiv may treat all ships in the Black Sea heading to Russian ports and occupied regions in Ukraine as military cargo vessels.

The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank said in an assessment on July 20 that the Kremlin likely views the Black Sea Grain Initiative as "one of its few remaining avenues of leverage against the West" and it has withdrawn from the deal "to secure these concessions."

"The Kremlin now appears to be attempting to create a sense of urgency around its return to the Black Sea Grain Initiative by conducting intensifying strikes against Ukrainian port and grain infrastructure and threatening to strike civilian ships in the Black Sea," the ISW said.

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