Is Russia's Defense Ministry Becoming the Kremlin Scapegoat for War Losses?

After recent Ukrainian advances in a counteroffensive taking place in Kharkiv, Kremlin officials and state media propagandists began "extensively discussing" why Russia is facing losses in eastern Ukraine, according to a U.S. think tank.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed in its September 13 campaign report that the "Kremlin's acknowledgment of the defeat is part of an effort to mitigate and deflect criticism for such a devastating failure away from Russian President Vladimir Putin and onto the Russian Ministry of Defense and the uniformed military command."

Furthermore, the blame Kremlin sources are shifting away from Putin is being directed at "underinformed military advisors within Putin's circle," according to the ISW.

"One member of the Kremlin's Council for Interethnic Relations, Bogdan Bezpalko, even stated that military officials who had failed to see the concentration of Ukrainian troops and equipment and disregarded Telegram channels that warned of the imminent Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kharkiv Oblast should have their heads 'lying on Putin's desk,'" the think tank wrote.

Now, experts are offering varying opinions on whether this purported effort to shift blame away from Putin means that the Kremlin is making the Russian defense ministry into a scapegoat for the war losses in Ukraine.

David Marples, a professor of Russian and East European history at the University of Alberta in Canada, told Newsweek that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is "a convenient scapegoat" for Russian war losses. Marples also noted that he believes Shoigu "has been left out of military planning for some time now."

Putin chose Shoigu as his defense minister in 2012 despite him having no military background or combat experience. An intelligence update from the U.K. Ministry of Defence late last month detailed independent Russian reporting that Shoigu was being "sidelined within the Russian leadership, with operational commanders briefing President Putin directly on the course of the war."

"Russian officers and soldiers with first-hand experience of the war probably routinely ridicule Shoigu for his ineffectual and out-of-touch leadership as Russian progress has stalled," the intelligence update said.

Yuri Zhukov, an associate professor of political science at the University of Michigan, predicted that "some heads will surely roll" because of Russia's recent losses, including some top officials in the Russian defense ministry.

"But I wouldn't characterize this as a case of 'deflecting blame' or 'saving Putin.' Or at least I wouldn't reduce it to that," he said. "The military reality is that Ukraine's offensive has completely scrambled Russia's campaign in the Donbas, which depended on the logistical hubs in Kupiansk and Izium. A loss like this is not just impossible to hide. It forces a fundamental rethink of Russia's entire strategy for the war. And a new strategy typically requires new leadership, certainly at the theater level, but probably also in the General Staff."

General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, the commander of Ukraine's military, announced over the weekend that Ukrainian troops had pushed to within 50 kilometers, about 30 miles, of the Ukraine-Russia border. Izium, Kupiansk and Balakliya are among the cities Ukraine said it has retaken from Russia in recent days. Russia's defense ministry initially framed the news of a Russian retreat in the Kharkiv region as a regrouping of its forces to the eastern Donetsk region, an explanation that was mocked by a Ukrainian ambassador.

Zhukov noted that generals get fired when armies lose big battles, something he said is not unique to Russia or autocratic regimes. He added that this process "involves finger-pointing and deflecting blame" but stressed that it should not be viewed as "an early indicator of regime collapse."

"I'd rather compare this to what happened in April, after Russia withdrew from Kyiv and the northern provinces of Ukraine. That was another case where Ukraine completely scrambled Russia's plans for winning the war, and the Kremlin responded by appointing a new theater-level commander and switching to a strategy of attrition in the Donbas."

Russia appointed a new commander, General Aleksandr Dvornikov, in April to lead the war in Ukraine as Russia shifted its focus to the east, CNN reported at the time, citing a U.S. official and a European official.

Michael Kimmage, professor and chair for the Catholic University of America's history department, does not believe that the Kremlin and Russian state media are positioning the defense ministry to become the fall guy for Kharkiv defeats and future losses. While Russia could pinpoint one person as a scapegoat and attribute their failings to inability or treason, he does not believe that person would be Shoigu.

"My guess is that they will do things in a more closed way, that there may well be a recalibration," he said. "But I don't think Putin can put the military out there as the responsible agents here. He's invested too much in it and it's too much a pillar of his power."

The Kremlin and Russia's defense ministry did not respond to Newsweek's previous requests for comment on the ISW assessment.