Russian 'Fear of Failure' Helps Ukraine Offensive, Ex-Defense Minister Says

Uncertainty among Russia's top military leaders is helping Ukrainian troops push their recent advances deeper into enemy-held territory and is hindering Moscow's response, a former Ukrainian defense minister has said.

Andriy Zagorodnyuk—minister of defense from 2019 to 2020 and now the chair of the Centre for Defense Strategies thinktank in Kyiv—said on Saturday he has "absolutely no doubt" that Ukraine will emerge from the ongoing war victorious, as Kyiv's forces drive deep behind Russian lines on multiple fronts.

Speaking at the Yalta European Strategy summit—organized by the Victor Pinchuk Foundation—in Kyiv, Zagorodnyuk said occupying Russian forces are exhausted and incapable of responding to Ukraine's escalating offensives.

The Russian mentality, he said, is a serious problem for Moscow.

"Fear of failure is one of the biggest drivers for the Russians in this war," Zagorodnyuk said. "They were certain of their superiority over Ukraine, they were so certain that they were going to win, that any mistake they make is much harder for them than it would be for us or for any other nation."

"That's why they don't call this a war," he said. "Because if this was a war and they don't win it, they'll look stupid. They cannot call mass mobilization, they cannot do lots of other things. For us, it's a total war...they are still trying to show it as some kind of regional operation. And that gives us an advantage."

"The generals are afraid to make mistakes, because as soon as the general makes a mistake he is blamed for that," Zagorodnyuk continued. "They stigmatize mistakes."

He added: "That's why, right now, we have a phenomenon where the generals are avoiding responsibility. That leads to the ultimate centralization of decision making, because everybody's trying to push decisions as far up as possible, which in turn kills their ability to make a multi-directional approach. And that's exactly what our armed forces are using."

Moscow's forces have already shown their inability to successfully maintain multiple axes of advance. The initial push towards Kyiv from Belarus collapsed in defeat, though Russian forces found more success in the south. In Donbas, Russia's grinding advance was facilitated by mass concentration of troops and artillery, weakening the lines elsewhere.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are inflicting significant defeats on Russian occupiers in the south and northeast simultaneously. Primed for an offensive around Kherson in the south, Russian forces were taken by surprise east of Kharkiv, where a Ukrainian counter-attack has punched deep holes in Russian lines and put tens of thousands of Russians at risk of encirclement.

"The Russians have stopped being competitive, and they're afraid to fail," Zagorodnyuk said. "Honestly, that does not seem like a winning plan."

The mood in Kyiv this weekend is resolutely confident. Six months into the war, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears stuck. Ukrainian forces have momentum, growing international support, and confidence.

"Russia has no chances, because they used all their chances already," Zagorodnyuk said. "They have no room for escalation, they have no room for growth...What we see right now is the Russian maximum. They cannot hire people, they cannot mobilize more equipment."

Russian troops have significant inertia, Zagorodnyuk said, but are steadily degrading. "They can still bring lots of people, but they cannot double their effort," the former defense minister said.

"Their ability to hold what they are holding right now will be less and less," he continued. "They literally have no chance of success."