Putin's Hopes of a Counter-Attack Are Dwindling

Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces are currently too "over-stretched" to mount a counterattack against Ukraine's military, according to the United Kingdom's Ministry of Defense.

In a Wednesday intelligence update, the MOD added that since Putin launched the war in February 2022, Russia has "only rarely" had an army capable of being used for a major new offensive.

The MOD assessment comes as Ukrainian officials and Western analysts have reported that Kyiv has made progress in its ongoing counteroffensive against invading Russian forces. Along with successful operations in the southern region of Zaporizhzhia and advancements near the Donetsk region settlement of Bakhmut, Ukraine has carried out a series of high-profile attacks on Russia's Black Sea Fleet in Crimea in recent weeks.

The latest intelligence update from the MOD focused on Russia's recent decision to send troops from a newly created reserve army into action, a move that the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank earlier this month characterized as a "rushed deployment."

"Since mid-September 2023, Russia has highly likely committed elements of its new 25th Combined Arms Army (25 CAA) to action for the first time," the MOD wrote, adding that the formation first moved into Ukraine in late August.

Newsweek reached out to the Russian Ministry of Defense via email for comment.

"Units from two of 25 CAA's maneuver components, 67th Motor Rifle Division and 164th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade are reported to be fighting on the front in a sector west of Severodonetsk and Kreminna, along the border between Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," the MOD said.

The British agency said the use of the 25 CAA is representative of larger issues that have reportedly plagued Putin's military throughout the military campaign in Ukraine.

"Since the start of the invasion, Russia has only rarely maintained an uncommitted army-size grouping which could potentially form the basis of a major new offensive thrust," the MOD wrote, adding, "With 25 CAA apparently being deployed piecemeal to reinforce the over-stretched line, a concerted new Russian offensive is less likely over the coming weeks."

When the ISW wrote of the 25 CAA's deployment in a September 1 assessment, the think tank said the reserve troops were reportedly being used to relieve soldiers from Russia's "relatively more effective" 41st Combined Arms Army. The 41st CAA units have reportedly been fighting against Kyiv's counteroffensive operations with little rotation to allow troops to recuperate.

The ISW also noted the 25 CAA "is unlikely to be combat effective at scale given its rushed deployment" and could be "severely understaffed."