Russian Invasion Accelerates Record Gas Price Estimates in U.S.

Next month, the U.S. could hit the national average gas price record it set nearly 14 years ago, earlier than initially estimated, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, an industry expert said Friday.

Russia's February 24 invasion has raised concerns about potential impacts the military conflict could have on the global oil supply, due in part to Russia's role as one of the world's top oil producers. Those concerns have translated into increasing prices at the pump across the U.S., with some states reporting increases of more than 30 cents in the past week for a gallon of regular unleaded.

Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told reporters during a Facebook Live event on Friday that high oil prices reported this week mean gas price increases "will likely continue" in the days ahead.

"I know a lot of prices have already gone up—in some instances 50, 60, 70 cents over the last few weeks," De Haan said. "There will be more increases coming, maybe to the tune of another 20 to 30 cents a gallon."

The current national average price record was set in July 2008, at about $4.11 per gallon. The current national average price, about $3.83 per gallon, could soon reach that nearly 14-year record, De Haan said.

"I do expect that the national average in the United States will hit the $4 a gallon mark—that's probably something that's less than two or three weeks away," De Haan said. "We are likely to set all-time new records in the U.S.," he added, noting such an occurrence "could" happen "by April Fools' Day."

De Haan's predictions mark an escalated timeline for when the U.S. might reach its previous national average record. Shortly after Russia's military conflict with Ukraine escalated last week, De Haan said it was "possible" that the U.S. could set a new national average gas price record by May or June.

While the U.S. has not placed sanctions specifically on Russia's energy sectors, other sanctions currently in place "are having a significant impact" on Russia and are driving up oil prices as a result, he said. The annual transition to summer gas in the U.S. is also contributing to rising prices, but De Haan said the bulk of price increases seen over the past week is attributable to Russia's conflict with Ukraine.

"If that situation worsens, or if it escalates, the impact could be more severe," he noted, adding that his estimates for gas price increases are subject to how the military conflict proceeds.

With additional gas price hikes across the U.S. likely, De Haan said, President Joe Biden's administration could consider keeping winter gas taxes in place during the summer months ahead. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy, has the authority to issue what the agency describes as "emergency waivers of certain fuel standards" in response to some circumstances involving disruptions to the fuel supply.

Issuing such a waiver to prevent gas taxes from rising in the summer months "could help alleviate the price pinch somewhat," De Haan said.

Newsweek reached out to the EPA for comment and will update this story with any response.