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A Russian lawmaker recently issued a stark warning to Poland amid heightened tensions on its Belarusian border, saying that "everything will end badly."
Andrey Gurulyov, a member of Russia's state Duma and former military commander, warned Poland against positioning its troops near the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, while also claiming, without evidence, that Polish authorities are seeking to seize control of parts of Ukraine, during an appearance on Russian state television.
His remarks follow weeks of inflamed tensions between Poland and the Wagner Group, a paramilitary organization that previously fought alongside Russian troops in the Russia-Ukraine war. However, the Wagner Group was exiled to Belarus in June following their attempted mutiny against Russian military leadership over Moscow's stagnant invasion. Wagner's presence in Belarus has fueled concerns about destabilization across eastern and central Europe, including in Poland, a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Gurulyov urged Russian authorities to take a hardline stance if Poland moves its troops near Kaliningrad, though Polish authorities have not expressed any interest in taking control of the region.

"The second topic is the defense of Kaliningrad as an exclave. The message is very clear: 'Guys, if God forbid you go anywhere in the direction of our Kaliningrad region, everything will end badly for you. This is probably the way it should be," he said.
Gurulyov's remarks were translated and posted to X, formerly known as Twitter, by The Kremlin Yap early Saturday morning.
While Poland has not moved troops near Kaliningrad, it has transferred thousands of soldiers near the Belarusian border amid Wagner's increased presence in the region.
Poland has raised concerns about the possibility of the Wagner Group invading Poland to seize control of the Suwałki Gap, a small but critical corridor located along Poland's northeastern border that separates Russia from Kaliningrad. A Polish Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson previously told Newsweek that its military "must be ready for various possible scenarios."
Newsweek reached out to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Polish Ministry of National Defense for comment via email.
Poland does not make decisions on its own, it is armed and will be forced to attack in order to capture Western Ukraine or the whole of Ukraine. Russia is arming Belarus to contain Poland - Gurulev's rhetoric is very reminiscent of the Soviet newspaper Pravda in August 1939, when… pic.twitter.com/PjSjZt8cey
— TheKremlinYap (@TheKremlinYap) August 19, 2023
Wagner control of this corridor would isolate the Baltic States—Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania—from the the rest of Europe, potentially allowing Moscow to exert greater influence over these nations. It would also draw a response from NATO, as its founding treaty states that any attack against it would be treated as an attack against the entire military alliance.
Gurulyov also suggested Poland has its own clear goals and objectives to seize control of Western Ukraine. This is a claim that has been made by several Russian officials, but has never been substantiated. Polish authorities have not suggested they have any interest in seizing Ukraine and has been one of Kyiv's closest allies as it continues to fight off Moscow's invasion.
"This is the minimum task. And the ultimate goal is to enter Ukraine and make it their vassal. We must deter this. And it's pretty easy to do. The main point is the question of strategic deterrence. We are doing this by deploying nuclear capabilities in our allied, fraternal Belarus. This is precisely the issue of strategic deterrence so that the Poles would have no thought of going anywhere," he said.
Ben Hodges, the former Commanding General of U.S. Army forces in Europe, previously told Newsweek that Wagner Group forces "would be crushed" if they attempted to invade Poland.
About the writer
Andrew Stanton is a Newsweek weekend reporter based in Maine. His role is reporting on U.S. politics and social issues. ... Read more