Russian Losses in Bakhmut 'Nine Times' More Than Ukraine's: Kyiv

Russian forces fighting in and around the devastated town of Bakhmut are suffering nearly nine times the casualty rate of attacking Ukrainian troops, according to the Ukrainian defense ministry. Kyiv's forces are going on the offensive at multiple points along the 800-mile front after months of grinding defensive battles.

Hanna Maliar, the deputy Ukrainian defense minister, wrote on her Telegram channel that Russian forces are suffering severe losses in Ukraine's nascent counterattack. She added that Moscow is trying to cover the casualties via information operations magnifying Ukraine's own losses.

"The goal is to demoralize and create panic," Maliar wrote of these efforts from the Russians. These include the dissemination of images and videos showing destroyed NATO-provided equipment like German-made Leopard 2 tanks and American Bradley infantry fighting vehicles.

"During the offensive, the Ukrainian army suffers many times less losses compared to the invaders, despite the fake Russian [claims] to the contrary," Maliar added.

"I want to remind you that, during the war, neither side publishes accurate data on their losses, because this can be used by the enemy to predict the enemy's future actions on the battlefield."

Maliar said there are "two operationally strategic groups of troops that are now advancing:" one in the Bakhmut direction in the eastern Donetsk Oblast; and the second in southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Around Bakhmut, Maliar wrote, "the enemy's casualties are 8.73 times more, almost nine times." And in the south, she added that "the enemy's casualties were 5.3 times more than ours." Newsweek is not able to independently verify these figures, and has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.

Neither side publishes regular casualty figures. Moscow's last update was in September 2022, when Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said some 6,000 troops had been killed in action.

Kyiv says it has "eliminated" more than 216,000 Russian troops since February 24, 2022. This broadly corresponds with U.S. and other Western estimates of 200,000 Russian killed and wounded since the full-scale invasion began.

A significant portion of Russian losses are believed to have occurred in Donetsk, and in particular in the Kremlin's costly push for Bakhmut. The U.S. estimated that Russia sustained 100,000 casualties during its winter offensive stretching from December 2022 to May 2023.

Ukrainian forces are also thought to have suffered high casualties in Bakhmut and elsewhere in Donetsk. The Pentagon intelligence leak from earlier this year suggested some 124,500 to 131,000 total Ukrainian casualties, including 15,500 to 17,500 killed in action and 109,000 to 113,500 wounded in action.

The same leaked documents suggested Russia has suffered 189,500 to 23,000 total casualties, including 35,500 to 43,000 killed in action and 154,000 to 180,000 wounded.

Much like the casualty figures, Ukrainian officials are giving little public information on the ongoing counteroffensive. Kyiv has reported significant advances in both counteroffensive directions, while Moscow has repeatedly claimed to have stopped the push and inflicted significant personnel and equipment losses on Ukrainian forces.

Near what is left of Bakhmut—captured by Russian forces led by Wagner Group mercenaries in May after 10 months of costly fighting—Ukrainian forces are on the offensive on the city's northern and southern flanks. Russian troops still hold the city proper, which has been destroyed by the intense fighting.

Kyiv faced significant criticism for its strategy in Bakhmut, repeatedly reinforcing its forces there despite regular assertions that the city held little strategic value. The fight for the city became an intensely political one, with President Volodymyr Zelensky warning that failing to fight for Bakhmut would be interpreted as weakness in Moscow.

In an email sent to Newsweek, Robert E. Hamilton—the head of research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute's Eurasia program—said: "Recent Ukrainian gains around Bakhmut seem to have validated Kyiv's strategy.

"While Bakhmut has little military significance, Ukraine concluded that capturing it was a major Russian goal. Rather than withdrawing its forces, Kyiv decided to make Russia fight a grinding battle there, in which Russia incurred significant losses.

"The Wagner Group forces that finally took the city were so depleted that they needed to be withdrawn and replaced with Russian Army forces, which had not fought in Bakhmut and had little understanding of the terrain there. It is these forces that Ukraine has been pushing back in the early stages of its counter-offensive."

6/16/23 3:00 a.m. ET: This article has been updated to include comment from Robert E. Hamilton.