Russia's Winter Offensive Is Failing—U.K. Intel

It is "increasingly apparent" that Russia's winter offensive has "failed" in Ukraine, according to the British Ministry of Defense.

Russian troops are reported to have suffered tens of thousands of casualties in attacks in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, with a particular focus on the symbolically important city of Bakhmut, over the past few months.

Putin's generals are under increasing pressure to achieve a win following Ukrainian victories around Kharkiv and Kherson in September and November of 2022. The Ukrainian military is widely believed to be marshaling forces, including modern armor donated by western powers, for an upcoming counter-offensive.

The latest U.K. Defense Ministry update, released on Saturday, summarized Moscow's progress since General Valery Gerasimov took charge of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in January, replacing Sergey Surovikin.

It states: "On 11 January 2023, Russian Chief of the General Staff (CGS) General Valery Gerasimov took personal command of the 'special military operation' in Ukraine.

"Gerasimov's tenure has been characterised by an effort to launch a general winter offensive with the aim of extending Russian control over the whole of the Donbas region. Eighty days on, it is increasingly apparent that this project has failed."

The Russian assault on Bakhmut has been conducted by both regular Russian forces and troops from the Wagner mercenary group, many recruited straight out of prison. On Wednesday, General Mark Milley, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, described battles around Bakhmut as a "slaughter-fest for the Russians."

The British intelligence update continued: "On several axes across the Donbas front, Russian forces have made only marginal gains at the cost of tens of thousands of casualties, largely squandering its temporary advantage in personnel gained from the autumn's 'partial mobilisation.'

"After ten years as Chief of the General Staff, there is a realistic possibility that Gerasimov is pushing the limits of how far Russia's political leadership will tolerate failure."

Newsweek has contacted the defense ministries of Russia and Ukraine for comment by email.

On March 25, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington D.C.-based think tank, said Russian industry is being "hopelessly outmatched" by western support for Ukraine.

It said: "The balance of overall available resources and industrial capacity is decisively weighted toward the West.

"Russian military industrial potential is, in fact, hopelessly outmatched by Western military industrial potential."

On the same day, President Putin said Russia would produce and upgrade more than 1,600 tanks over the next three years, though this was dismissed by the ISW due to Russia's "limited industrial capacity."

The think tank also estimated Moscow will need to produce another 1,350 tanks over the next nine months, just to maintain their stocks at the current level.