Sabotage in Russia Will Increase Amid Counteroffensive: Ukraine Adviser

Kyiv has hinted at an intensification of sabotage inside Russia as Ukrainian troops prepare to launch their long-awaited spring counteroffensive and as Moscow seemingly struggles to stop attacks on vital oil and transport infrastructure.

Anton Gerashchenko, adviser to the Ukrainian Internal Affairs Ministry, told Newsweek that the Kremlin's apparent inability to ensure security on its own soil will help chip away at national support for Moscow's disastrous ongoing war against its western neighbor.

"We can only assume that the partisan activity on Russia's territory regarding the logistical centers—oil infrastructure and transport infrastructure—will increase its intensity," said Gerashchenko.

"Ukraine doesn't confirm the alleged drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure," he added about recent suspected unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attacks on major oil sites in occupied Crimea and Russia's southwestern Krasnodar region, which is close to the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and about 125 miles from Crimea.

More than 20 suspected drone attacks have reportedly occurred inside Russian territory since the start of 2023. In addition, purportedly Russian anti-government groups have claimed responsibility for several bomb attacks on targets including railways close to the Ukrainian border.

Last week, two suspected drones detonated above the Kremlin compound, in what Moscow said was a Ukrainian assassination attempt on President Vladimir Putin. Kyiv denied any involvement.

Ukrainian leaders have always refused to confirm or deny responsibility for most sabotage attacks inside Russian territory. Mykhailo Podolyak—an adviser to the head of Ukraine's presidential office—wrote on Twitter on May 5 that the recent spate of incidents is a signal of the "growing governance weakness of the state," hinting at the involvement of "aggressive and paramilitary protest (guerrilla) groups."

Gerashchenko told Newsweek he does not expect such attacks to stop.

"It's difficult for Russians to hide these high-visibility attacks. And they also serve a psychological purpose, showing that unknown partisan groups are successfully functioning on Russia's territory. We see that the Russian population already sees suspicious 'drones' in stars, birds and suitcases."

Russian nerves and disrupted supply lines will be welcomed by Kyiv as it prepares its spring counteroffensive, which will for the first time involve NATO-made heavy-armor platforms like the Challenger 2 and Leopard 2 main battle tanks.

Ukrainian troops have fought a fierce defensive campaign through winter—particularly around the now-infamous town of Bakhmut—hoping to wear down Russian capabilities and set the stage for another successful drive, akin to those that liberated tens of thousands of square miles of territory in 2022.

But Gerashchenko said Kyiv still faces significant challenges.

"Disrupting or complicating supplies and logistics of the enemy is important," he said. "However, we must remember that oil reserves in Russia are vast, and these events might cause disruptions, not block Russian military capacity."

"The most welcome thing for the Ukrainian counteroffensive remains steady, stable and timely weapon supplies for the Ukrainian army from our allies," he added. "A well-armed and trained Ukrainian army is capable of degrading Russian military capacity, as we have proved many times already."

The kinds of drones linked to recent sabotage attacks are also playing a significant role at the front. Mykhailo Fedorov—Ukraine's deputy prime minister and minister for innovation and technology—said on May 4 that Kyiv has prepared 10,000 drone pilots for combat operations.

"This is quite significant as drones play a crucial role in modern combat," Gerashchenko said of the news. "Trained and skilled drone operators and an ample number of drones can save many lives on the frontlines and cause significant damage to the enemy."

"Drones are superweapons," he added. "If we calculate the cost of a drone and cost of equipment it can strike—plus the destruction of the enemy's soldiers—drones come out as highly effective. But unfortunately, drones are susceptible to damage and losses and they require constant replenishment of their stock."

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Foreign Ministry by email to request comment.