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In a very unsettled part of the world, Saudi Arabia has for many years remained surprisingly stable. While most of its neighbors have suffered through coups, revolutions or civil wars, Saudi Arabia has managed to quickly and peacefully transfer power from one king to the next six times since 1953. This smooth succession process has benefited American interests, regional stability and the global economy. Last week's promotion of Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman to the role of prime minister makes it more likely that this track record of stability will continue.
Saudi Arabia is a monarchy, where the king can, and sometimes does, issues royal Decrees under his personal executive authority. More often, however, legislation and government policy are set by the Council of Ministers, which is appointed by the king, meets weekly, and takes decisions by majority vote. The Council, has historically been chaired by the king acting in his capacity as president of the Council of Ministers or prime minister rather than as king or head of state.
While the 87-year-old king will no longer chair weekly cabinet meetings, it is unlikely that we will see significant changes in Saudi foreign or domestic policy. Many of King Salman's social and economic priorities have been clearly set out in Vision 2030, the development plan which Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman has vigorously sought to implement. What matters is that MBS has been given more authority. This reduces the likelihood of any opposition to his ultimate accession to the throne as does the simultaneous appointment of his brother Khalid as minister of defense.
Saudi Arabia is a prosperous and stable country with a lot to lose. Thus it largely shares our interest in maintaining the status quo. The kingdom was a reliable American ally in the Cold War and has been an effective partner in the war on terror for more than 20 years. The Saudis have quietly, but consistently, supported American efforts to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict. Unlike Iran, the Saudi voice in international forums such as the United Nations and Organization of Islamic Cooperation is generally a moderate one.
The Saudis understand that if oil is to remain a significant part of the global energy mix, oil prices must not become too volatile. Thus, over the past 40 years, Saudi Aramco has usually increased or decreased monthly production rates in an effort to balance global supply and demand. It has frequently increased production rates to compensate for hurricanes, wars, labor unrest or international sanctions that reduced output in other countries. On the other hand, when oil prices collapsed during the COVID-19 lockdown, the Saudis, with American encouragement, cut production to shore up prices. Now faced with aggressive demand reduction targets in Europe, a possible recession in the United States, and further lockdowns in China, the Saudis and their OPEC partners are again likely to cut production.
Nevertheless, the Saudis remain far more interested in preserving long-term demand for oil than in short-term windfall profits. They learned long ago that excessively high oil prices cause recessions, destroy demand and undermine their own prosperity. They remember 1979 when the shah of Iran was overthrown. Oil prices soared briefly, but the world soon faced years of stagflation and the Saudi economy suffered severely.
Due to ongoing political instability and poor reservoir management, the Islamic Republic of Iran has never returned oil production to pre-Revolutionary levels. Saudi Aramco on the other hand is not only the world's largest oil company, but also a technically competent, well-managed firm with the unique ability to quickly bring large volumes of oil into the market. It furthermore has clear plans to increase both renewable energy and oil production capacity in the future.
Under King Salman, Saudi social practices have changed more in the past five years than in the previous 40. Women are driving, taking off their veils and going to work. The religious police have been reined in and the amount of religion taught in schools reduced. Music is being heard in restaurants which are no longer gender-segregated. All of this was implemented by the Saudis themselves without expenditure of any American blood or treasure. That is a noteworthy contrast to our failed 20-year effort in Afghanistan, or present-day Iran where women are dying in jail for not covering their heads.
Saudi Arabia remains a deeply religious society composed of numerous tribes and regions. It was created and is still held together by the Al Saud monarchy, which remains its most important truly national institution. The most widespread and well-organized opposition to the monarchy comes not from secular liberals promoting democracy, but from potentially violent religious conservatives seeking stricter enforcement of Islamic law. As we have seen, the overthrow of monarchies in Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Iran, and Iraq by "republican" forces did not produce stable, pro-Western or democratic regimes. There is little reason to believe that the collapse of the Saudi monarchy would be any different. In fact, the most likely outcome of Saudi instability would be the Islamic Republic of Arabia led by jihadists like the Taliban or ISIS. One such republic in Iran is probably enough and having another in control of vast oil revenues and the pulpit in Mecca would be a disaster for Western interests.
In an increasingly multipolar world, the Saudis are no longer as firmly in the America camp as they once were. China is their largest customer. Russia is their strategic energy ally in the OPEC Plus cartel. Saudi American relations remain strained over the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi. Washington's requests for oil production increases no longer receive the attention they once did in Riyadh. Yet while the Saudis are currently charting a more independent foreign policy course, it remains one largely parallel with our interests in regional peace and global prosperity. Last week for example, it was Riyadh, not Washington or Brussels, which negotiated a prisoner exchange between Russia and the Ukraine. That agreement brought captured foreign fighters, including American citizens, to Riyadh for release. When the war in Ukraine eventually ends, Riyadh may again play a crucial role as an intermediary between Western capitals and Moscow. Ultimately, stability in Saudi Arabia is in our national interest and a smooth Saudi succession makes that stability more likely.
David H. Rundell is the author of Vision or Mirage, Saudi Arabia at the Crossroads and a former Chief of Mission at the American Embassy in Saudi Arabia. Ambassador Michael Gfoeller is a former Political Advisor to the U.S. Central Command.
The views expressed in this article are the authors' own.
