New York Defeat Shows Donald Trump Has 'Lost the Suburbs'—Scaramucci

Anthony Scaramucci has said that Donald Trump "lost the suburbs" after the Democrats successfully flipped a New York congressional seat.

Scaramucci, the former White House communications director, said on X, formerly Twitter, that Tom Suozzi's victory over his Republican opponent was a "tell for Biden," adding: "Trump is finished."

The Context

Suozzi beat Republican candidate Mazi Pilip to win New York's 3rd Congressional District seat, which was vacated by Republican George Santos, who was ousted from Congress in December.

What We Know

Scaramucci was Trump's White House communications director for less than two weeks in July 2017. He was removed after making comments to journalists that were deemed "inappropriate," according to then-White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders.

Since his time in office, Scaramucci has been openly critical of Trump and has said that he will back Joe Biden if they go head-to-head again in the general election in November.

Scaramucci told CNN that if Trump is re-elected he will "expand executive power. He's gonna make things rougher for people. He's already said he's going after his adversaries using the Department of Justice."

Trump has criticized Pilip since her defeat on Truth Social, accusing her of a "foolish" tactic to "straddle the fence." Pilip told Fox 5 New York that she did not think Trump was too old to run for president and did "great things for our country."

Trump's endorsement did not come Pilip's way amid multiple media reports that there was a perception he was kept at a distance during the race.

A Newsday/Siena College Poll from February 3-6 said that 55 percent of likely voters in the district had an unfavorable opinion of Trump—the figure was 57 percent for Joe Biden—with 26 percent of them Republicans.

Views

Trump said on Truth Social that "Republicans just don't learn" after Pilip lost to Suozzi, saying his MAGA movement was not treated with the "respect it deserves."

"[Pilip] would have easily WON if she understood anything about MODERN DAY politics in America," Trump wrote, adding that he had stayed out of the race.

Conservative activist and author Gavin Mario Wax said Trump would win the district in November. On X, he wrote: "This special had everything to do with a bad candidate, horrible campaign, and clueless GOP.

"It had little to do with President Trump, who polls better in NY-03 than either Mazi or Suozzi."

Another X user put the blame on the GOP because Pilip ran as a Republican despite being a registered Democrat. "Uh... they ran a registered Democrat as a Republican," the user said in response to Scaramucci.

Ron Filipkowski, editor-in-chief of the progressive MeidasTouch website, wrote on X that endorsements from House Speaker Mike Johnson and New York Representative Elise Stefanik did not help Pilip.

"Santos won this seat by 7.5 points," Filipkowski said. "MAGA Mike [Johnson] went in there. Stefanik went in there. They made the whole campaign about the border. And they got destroyed."

One X user added: "Suozzi's win in New York shows voters are tired of Republicans... It bodes well for November as people want leadership, not weak Trump tools."

Another user pointed to Suozzi campaign, saying he "won on ABORTION RIGHTS."

Respondents to the Newsday/Siena Poll said 55 percent of likely voters felt Suozzi would do a better job of "addressing the issue of abortion," but it is unclear how much the issue was important to voters on February 13.

What's Next?

It remains to be seen which issues will play a key part when voters head to the polls again in November.

Trump will likely be on the ballot, so Scaramucci will have to wait until then to be proved correct in his assertion Trump has lost the support of the suburbs.

Voters may also split on certain issues. Suozzi distanced himself from the White House during his campaign, telling Fox 5's Good Day New York he would support Biden's reelection but that he is "old."

A poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research released in August said 77 percent of voters thought Biden was too old for a second term. That was the view shared by 69 percent of Democrats who responded to the poll.

Age might be a factor for Trump, too, although the former president insists he is in excellent cognitive condition. Trump will be 78 at the start of a new term if he were to win.

A poll of 1,000 registered voters by NBC News found that Trump is ahead of Biden by 23 points on the question of if either candidate has "the necessary physical and mental health to be president."

A number of issues could factor into the election and an Emerson College poll released on January 18 said abortion access was the top issue among only 4 percent of voters.

With Trump taking credit the overturning of Roe v. Wade, however, Democrats may look to raise the issue in November.

A total of 26 percent of voters in NY-3 said immigration was the issue most important to them. The Biden administration, which has called for a Senate-negotiated deal to be approved in the House, has repeatedly been attacked by Republicans on immigration.

"We know that abortion and immigration are winning issues. Voters care about them," political communications scholar Mona Kleinberg told Newsweek. "This means that Democrats will likely continue to be on the defensive when it comes to immigration and on the offensive when it comes to abortion. Of course, the reverse is true for Republicans."

Some experts said special elections could be an unreliable predictor, despite the likes of Scaramucci and Filipkowski calling Tuesday's in New York a poor showing for MAGA.

"Special election outcomes often have no long-term impact," Wagner College political science professor Jeffrey Kraus told Newsweek.

Political consultant Jay Townsend added that the special election was "more a measure of the party organization's ability to turn out their voters."

Update 2/14/24, 7:33 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.