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At some point during the Republican 2024 primaries, there will be only two candidates remaining. One of them will be named Donald Trump, and the other will not. On Wednesday night, the second GOP debate may provide insights as to who might be that last Donald Trump alternative left standing.
For months, it appeared the role of Trump's prime rival would occupied by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, around whom there was much buzz and anticipation, until his actual campaign launched. The months since have been filled with repetitive and damaging stories, forcing observers to ask why he is not yet closing on the dominant frontrunner.
There has been no glaring flaw in the DeSantis campaign. His appearances remain crisp, his Florida record remains enviable. DeSantis' problem is that we have just been through the Summer of Trump—his legal battles, his always provocative social media outbursts, and his massive impenetrable lead.
No one was ever going to catch Trump in this calendar year. Some of his support is from voters who may or may not favor him to the exclusion of the rest of the field, but surely want to deliver a message of disapproval amid malicious political arraignments. They may peel off as the early primaries approach, shifting their focus from protest gestures to serious consideration of the only question that matters: who should be the Republican nominee?
Trump can settle that question without siphoning significant support from any of his rivals. They, on the other hand, need to poach at least half of his current base.
No one on the Wednesday night stage will inch toward Trump or dispatch any competitor with some obviously pre-planned zinger. Ask Chris Christie how that worked during his baseless "Chat GPT" attack on Vivek Ramaswamy.
And if you have Christie's attention, ask him why he's still running. Only the mysteriously rescued Doug Burgum has a shakier premise for debate participation. Christie's Jersey bully-boy act may garner friendly TV segments on liberal networks, but the Republican verdict is in, and it's not promising.
Mike Pence's footing is only slightly steadier, but as our immediately previous vice president, he merits the equivalent of a March Madness at-large bid. And if Trump decides to attend the next debate in Miami on November 8, the resulting January 6 tussle with Pence could cut through the usual debate tedium.
If Vivek is jockeying with DeSantis to reach Iowa and New Hampshire in second place, two more familiar and experienced names will be clawing for the same turf. If Nikki Haley notches another sound performance, she will be in a position to make serious news this fall if the DeSantis numbers remain stagnant and snappy debate moments only temporarily boost Vivek. Easiest prediction of the night: Tim Scott will be wonderful, reminding everyone why he is a fine conservative, a superb senator and a praiseworthy Christian. But there is also likely to be continued evidence that, for all his attributes, there simply are not very many people who want him to be president.
The Haley-Scott bracket may gather further attention as a running-mate derby. Either Trump or DeSantis would be well served clasping hands with either of them next year at the Milwaukee GOP convention in July. They are smart, talented and able to sidestep the stigma of a "two white guys" ticket without the slightest hint of an identity-politics motive.
If the first GOP debate featured attempts to hose down some recent promising poll numbers for Vivek, this second gathering may seek to further hinder a DeSantis campaign that is perceived, fairly or not, as stagnant. If the Florida governor fares well, he has more than the third debate to look forward to. On November 30, he will take a stage with a single opponent in a masterstroke of political theater—the engagement with Gavin Newsom orchestrated by Fox News host Sean Hannity following his remarkably constructive one-on-one with Newsom in June.
It is the quintessential win-win. DeSantis gets to look particularly presidential in a general election-style environment rather than the crowded, wearying free-for-all of the GOP debates, and Newsom gets to show millions of Democrats what it could look like if they had a coherent nominee.
But that night will lose its luster if DeSantis cannot shake the image of a failure to launch. Wednesday night is his opportunity to stand up to other contenders and claim, in this season of Trump domination, the advantageous designation of best of the rest.
Mark Davis is a talk show host for the Salem Media Group on 660AM The Answer in Dallas-Ft. Worth, and a columnist for the Dallas Morning News and Townhall.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
