The Senate GOP's Only Black Candidate Fights to Turn One Deep-Blue Michigan Seat Red

Republicans are counting on John James to flip a Michigan Senate seat red for the first time in decades.

But his association with President Donald Trump could spoil their chances.

James, a businessman and combat veteran, sailed through the Republican primary this week unopposed. He is facing Democratic incumbent Gary Peters this fall as the lone Black Republican running for Senate in the 2020 cycle. If elected, he'd be the second African-American conservative in the 100-member chamber.

Amid a nationwide reckoning on racial inequality in the wake of the police death of George Floyd in May, Black candidates running for federal office have seen a boost in support: Jamaal Brown in New York, Charles Booker in Kentucky and Jaime Harrison in South Carolina are among them.

Strategists say the same opportunity is available for James, but that his relative silence on Trump's handling of race relations is biting into any potential gains.

"You would think that in a time of Black Lives Matter and all the racial tension in this country, that Mr. James would be more open and honest about his feelings as it relates to the president's racial divisiveness. Any time anyone brings it up he ignores it, he avoids it," said Mario Morrow Sr., a political consultant in Michigan who has worked for Republican and Democratic governors.

Morrow said that people who want to back James have turned away from his candidacy because of his "strong arrogance to support the president."

"I think he has failed them with not actually standing up for what is right and what is wrong. That is what is going to cause him, more than anything else, to lose this election—not only with Black people but with white people, too."

Polling has shown that Americans do not agree with Trump's response to race relations. An ABC News/Ipsos survey from last month found that two-thirds of U.S. adults, roughly 67 percent, disapproved of his handling of the matter.

"At least for people who care about these issues, the president and his brand are toxic," said Adrian Hemond, a Lansing-based Democratic strategist.

Newsweek reached out to the James campaign multiple times for comment but did not receive a response by publication.

But he described what being a Black man running for office in America means to him in an ABC News article earlier this week.

"I know what it feels like to be pulled over and fear for my life and wonder if this is the day that my son is going to see his daddy bleed out in the street. I know what it feels like to be in a car with my wife when somebody calls the cops because they perceive me as a threat."

"I think all I can do is be myself ... I'm in this position because someone fought for me, someone marched for me," he added.

But it's not only Trump's unpopular approach to race issues that could affect James this election cycle. The president's poll numbers overall in Michigan have been in a downward spiral—especially amid the coronavirus pandemic and resulting recession. The latest polling of the general election race shows Trump behind Democratic nominee Joe Biden by 12 points.

The drop-off could be enough to take James down with him. Split-ticket voting, which is when someone supports candidates of different political parties on one ballot, is becoming an increasingly rare phenomenon in U.S. elections.

"The James campaign has done a lot of things right but they have some serious headwind with how badly the president is polling in Michigan right now," Hemond said.

James has been one of the few bright spots for Republicans amid their Senate woes in the 2020 election cycle. The party has been stuck on defense as Democrats plot multiple paths to winning back majority control, but the Michigan race offered an opportunity to flip a seat that hasn't gone Republican since the 1970s.

The 38-year-old has been a rising star in the Republican Party since his first Senate bid in 2018, when he lost to Democrat Debbie Stabenow by 7 percentage points. But he outperformed every other Michigan Republican who ran for statewide office. Trump tweeted at the time that James was "SPECTACULAR. Rarely have I seen a candidate with such great potential."

In 2020, he's caught the eye of big donors and has raised an impressive $20 million so far this cycle. He's now outraised Peters in four consecutive quarters, though Peters still has roughly $2 million more in the bank than James.

But experts say he still faces an upward climb in flipping the Senate seat in November, especially if he can't attract some Democrats to his cause.

"It's certainly not an impossible task, but in these very partisan times it's a very daunting task," said Dennis Darnoi, a Republican political consultant based in Michigan. "There is room and there is opportunity for him, the question is whether he can break through the noise at the top ticket."

Perhaps recognizing this, James has been making some efforts to separate the race from Trump. In an interview with the Associated Press, James said he supported Trump but that he's "looking forward to running my own race, being my own man." His latest ad, titled "Unity is Everything," called for more bipartisanship in Washington.

However, he may find it difficult to remove himself from the president's outsized presence, especially given the past support he's lent Trump. James once said he backed the president "2,000 percent"—a soundbite often used against him in attack ads and Democratic talking points.

Much of the polling of the general election race has found James trailing Peters by nearly double digits. The closest margin between the two was 4 points, which was found in a Change Research poll last month.

But Peters, who first won the seat in 2014 when he defeated former secretary of state Terri Lynn Land by 14 points, is still not very well-known among voters in the state. One survey from June found that 22 percent of likely voters didn't recognize the senator's name while 23 percent didn't recognize James, a political newcomer. Polling by Morning Consult has found Peters remains one of the least-known senators to his constituents even after six years in office.

"His numbers should be in a better position," said Bernie Porn, president of EPIC-MRA polling in Michigan.

Still, analysts predict a tough road ahead for James. Election forecasters such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball are rating the Senate race as "leaning Democrat" as of Thursday.

"It's an uphill swim. I don't think it's impossible," said Darnoi, the Republican strategist. "But [James] needs a lot of things to fall in the right places for him and some of that is just outside of his control."