Senators Pick Economy, Jobs as Top Issues Facing Six Key Swing States

In less than five weeks, U.S. voters will determine the balance of power in Congress. At this point, the polling aggregation site FiveThirtyEight reports that Republicans are "slightly favored" to take the House, while Democrats are "slightly favored" to maintain control of the Senate.

The upper chamber has stood in a 50-50 lock for the entirety of President Joe Biden's tenure, requiring Vice President Kamala Harris to serve as the tie-breaking vote. This situation afforded a great deal of power to moderate Democratic Senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, who often represented the deciding votes for their party.

Failure to gain the support of Manchin and Sinema prevented Democrats from passing Biden's original Build Back Better bill, which in its near-final version would have cost $1.75 trillion, with investments in universal pre-K and home-based care, priorities that the subsequent Inflation Reduction Act did not include.

Tension around the support of Manchin and Sinema often hung on the fact that Democrats lacked the 60 votes needed to overcome a Senate filibuster. The party attempted to end the filibuster during two prominent occasions when they looked to pass legislation codifying Roe v. Wade and expanding voting rights, but both times the two senators blocked such efforts.

If the Democrats could win a Manchin- and Sinema-proof Senate majority in the midterms, they could carry out their more ambitious efforts by eliminating the filibuster. Following are profiles of the races that will likely determine whether that prospect will become reality — the six Senate contests that are actually "in play," according to FiveThirtyEight — where the races stand at this point and the most important issues to the voters in each state, according to one of its sitting senators who is not in the race.

North Carolina
Race Odds: Even
Top Issues: The Economy, Crime

The race for retiring Republican Senator Richard Burr's seat is dead even, according to FiveThirtyEight, and will see a new politician ascend to Congress' upper chamber for the start of 2023.

The Republican candidate is Ted Budd, the current U.S. representative for North Carolina's 13th District, an area running diagonally north of Charlotte to West of Durham. Before entering Congress in 2017, Budd had not served in office — he was a small businessman who ran a gun shop and shooting range.

His Democratic opponent, Cheri Beasley, chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court, brings a significant legal background to the race. She has been a member of the Supreme Court since 2012, and was elected chief justice in 2019. Beasley previously served on the North Carolina Court of Appeals from 2008 to 2012, before which she was a district court judge and public defender.

Republican Senator Thom Tillis, whose term ends in 2027, weighed in on the most important issue he believes to be facing his state:

"Fiscal uncertainty and what I think is an imminent recession, people may not be thinking about it, but this time next year, I think we'll be in the throes of it," he told Newsweek. "We also, like all other states, have a huge labor shortage. We got a labor participation trend that's going down. We got to figure out a way to fill these jobs, which is why I think immigration programs are important."

"[The voters] are worried about crime," he continued. "We've seen crime spike — fortunately, not as bad as many other cities — but I think crime, the economy are the two key factors. I think they're going to be the things that influence the results of the election."

Nevada
Race Odds: R+1
Top Issues: Health Care, Abortion

Current Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto finds herself fighting to maintain her seat in a race against Republican challenger Adam Laxalt that FiveThirtyEight's average polling data currently predicts as "+1" Republican.

Cortez Masto has held the seat since 2017 following previous Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid's retirement. Before taking on the role, she served as the state's attorney general from 2007 through 2015. She worked as an attorney and executive vice chancellor of the Nevada System of Higher Education prior to elective politics.

Laxalt also has served as Nevada's attorney general, holding the office from 2015 to 2019. In 2018, he was chosen as the Republican nominee for governor but lost to Democrat Steve Sisolak, who currently serves in the role. Before launching his political career, Laxalt worked as an attorney and served as a lieutenant in the U.S. Navy.

Newsweek asked Nevada's other senator, Jacky Rosen, a Democrat whose term currently lasts until 2025, what she sees as the greatest issue facing the state of Nevada at the moment, ahead of election day.

"Absolutely health care," she said. "We need to improve the number of physicians and providers across every specialty in Nevada — you know, we're ranked 47 or 48 — so health care. Prescription drug prices is one of the things at least for seniors. Inflation Reduction Act, we've lowered that $35 insulin — it's going to be a game changer for people. So, health care, prescription drugs, really important, and a woman's right to choose."

"Choice — people in Nevada we want to be independent, we want everyone to be able to choose, to make the choice that's right for themselves in the privacy of their physician's office," she added. "In fact, in the 1990s, Nevadans did just that when we put that in our [state law]. And so, I think that is the number one issue on the ballot."

Ohio
Race Odds: D+1
Top Issue: Abortion

Republican Senator Rob Portman will end his two-term long senate career this year, leaving an open seat in the historic swing state that former President Donald Trump carried in 2020. FiveThirtyEight currently reports the Democratic Party as being up one in this race.

Democrat Tim Ryan, who serves as the U.S. representative for Ohio's 13th District, which includes parts of Akron, currently leads in the polls. Ryan entered Congress in 2003, coming off a stint as the senator for Ohio's 32nd District from 2001 to 2002. In 2020, he ran for the Democratic presidential nomination but bowed out after low polling and disappointing fundraising.

Ryan's opponent is J.D. Vance, author of the best-selling Hillbilly Elegy. Vance has never previously held elective office. He served as a corporal in the Marine Corps from 2003 to 2007, and later went on to work as an investor in Silicon Valley.

Sitting U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democratic whose term ends in 2025, offered insight on what issues are having the greatest impact on his state:

"I'm not gonna rank greatest, but it's clear this legislature and state government are so far out of touch on women's rights that they have passed and are about to pass some of the worst abortion languages, laws in the country," he told Newsweek. "At the same time, their mission seems to be cut taxes on corporations and rich people and not invest in kids, so there's a real hypocrisy there that I think sort of turns our state."

Georgia
Race Odds: D+2
Top Issues: The Economy, Jobs

Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock finds himself ahead by two points in his race to hold onto his senate seat, according to FiveThirtyEight.

After former Republican Senator Johnny Isakson vacated the position due to health issues, Georgia's Republican Governor Brian Kemp tapped Kelly Loeffler to finish out his term. A special election was held in 2020 followed by a runoff in January of 2021 to decide who would finish the remainder of the term.

Warnock, who served (and continues to serve) as senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, where Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. previously preached, won the race by two points. Before joining the Senate, Warnock has not served in elected office, but had been a political activist.

Republican challenger Herschel Walker has also never held political office, but carries a famed history in the state. Walker won the Heisman Trophy in 1982, and prior to that he helped the University of Georgia Bulldogs win the College football national championship in 1980. Following a 15-year NFL career, he carried out a number of business activities and served on the President's Council on Sports, Fitness, and Nutrition under President Trump.

Current Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff, who ran in 2020 but does not have to defend his seat until 2026, shared with Newsweek what he sees as the top issues facing his state.

"I address a range of concerns facing communities across the state," he told Newsweek. "When the rubber meets the road, what families and businesses want to know is can they make ends meet and can they prosper? Is there employment available? Are basic goods and services affordable? Are they confident that their kids will have more opportunity than they did? So, economic well-being, the prosperity of families, and small businesses in my state is the number one concern."

Wisconsin
Race Odds: R+2
Top Issues: The Economy, Jobs

Incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson leads his challenger, Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, by two points in the state of Wisconsin, FiveThirtyEight reports.

Johnson became a senator in 2011 after defeating sitting Democratic Senator Russ Feingold. Before taking office, Johnson worked at and helped start Pacur, a plastics company that was formed out of a Wisconsin firm started by the brother of Johnson's wife. Johnson worked as Pacur's CEO before taking office.

Democratic challenger Barnes was elected as the lieutenant governor of Wisconsin in 2019. Prior to that he represented the 11th District in the state assembly from 2013 to 2017. He worked as a community organizer before entering politics.

Senator Tammy Baldwin, a Democrat whose term does not end until 2025, told Newsweek that economic issues stand at the forefront of concerns facing her state:

"It's almost always about work and getting ahead and being able to, at a time of inflation, being able to make ends meet and afford to have an opportunity at the middle class," she said. "I would say that's probably the key thing — economic issues."

Florida
Race Odds: R+4
Top Issues: The Economy, Jobs

Florida's current Republican Senator Marco Rubio sits a bit more comfortably ahead in his race compared to some of the others on this list. FiveThirtyEight has him running four points ahead of his Democratic challenger, Congresswoman Val Demings.

Demings represents Florida's 10th District, an area comprising the western portion of Orlando and its suburbs. Prior to taking office in 2017, Demings served as chief of the Orlando Police Department from 2007 to 2011. She served in that Department in various position for a total of 27 years.

Ascending to national prominence as a 2016 candidate for the Republican Party's presidential nomination, Rubio has served in the U.S. Senate since 2011. Before rising to the upper chamber, he was elected to represent the 111th District in the Florida House of Representatives, where he served as house speaker from 2006 to 2008. Rubio also served as a member of the West Miami City Commission before being elected to the Florida House, and also taught at Florida International University between his terms in the Florida House and the U.S. Senate.

Elected to the U.S. Senate in 2018, Republican Senator Rick Scott does not have to defend his seat until 2024. In addition to the damage inflicted by Hurricane Ian, he told Newsweek what he sees as the greatest issues facing the state.

"I've always thought there's three issues you have to work on all the time: Always make sure you improve your economy, so people get jobs; Also, make sure you're always improving your education system. I'm proud of where we are, but there's always things you can do. And same thing with keeping safe, we have great sheriffs and police chiefs, but you're always trying to figure out how do you get an even lower crime rate. When I left [the governorship in 2019], we were at a 47-year low on crime rate."

Other Single-Digit Races

While FiveThirtyEight currently rates these six states as the most competitive races, five other Senate races are polling in the single digits as well.

Democratic challenger John Fetterman leads Republican Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania by six points, as the two look to fill retiring Republican Senator Pat Toomey's seat. A Democrat is also ahead in Arizona, where incumbent Senator Mark Kelly leads Republican challenger and venture capitalist Blake Masters by seven points.

In Iowa, Republican Senator Chuck Grassley leads Democratic challenger retired Navy Vice Admiral Michael Franken by seven points.

Democrats also post single-digit leads in New Hampshire and Colorado. Sitting Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan sits eight points ahead of retired Army Brigadier General Don Bolduc. Similarly, in Colorado, Incumbent Senator Michael Bennet, a Democrat, leads construction CEO Joe O'Dea by nine points.

Summary

The six sitting senators named the following issues as most important in their state: The economy (4); jobs (3); abortion (2); healthcare (1); crime (1). The age-old adage is that voters vote their wallets. With a struggling economy and stubbornly high inflation, if that holds true, it could spell trouble for the party in power — the Democrats — and for their chances to take full control of the Senate.