Shohei Ohtani Injury: How UCL Tear Impacts Star's Impending Free Agency

Shohei Ohtani, the Los Angeles Angels' two-way phenom, struck out two batters in the top of the first during Game 1 of Wednesday's doubleheader, then hit his MLB-leading 44th home run in the bottom of the inning. Within a few hours of Ohtani rounding the bases, his baseball future was suddenly in question.

Ohtani exited his start against the Cincinnati Reds after recording four outs and throwing only 26 pitches. The Angels initially described the issue as arm fatigue. It ended up being much worse than that.

Angels general manager Perry Minasian said Wednesday night after the doubleheader that Ohtani had suffered a tear in his right ulnar collateral ligament and would not pitch again this season. Minasian said an MRI between games revealed the damage, though Ohtani still insisted on staying in the lineup as designated hitter in Game 2.

It is unclear, Minasian said, if Ohtani will require Tommy John surgery, which he had on his right elbow in 2018.

"As far as plans and details, I don't have those yet," Minasian said at a press conference. "I've been in contact with his representation. Obviously he hit the second game. He's played with this, in '18, but with that being said, we'll take it day by day and see where it goes. Obviously disappointing news. I feel terrible for him. But it is what it is. If anybody can bounce back, it's him."

Ohtani is just months from becoming one of the most sought-after free agents ever. The 29-year-old was set to enter free agency as maybe the best available pitcher and hitter rolled into one. But after Wednesday, his future as a pitcher is in question and millions of dollars are up in the air.

Here's a look at Ohtani's injury and how it could impact his contract this offseason.

What Would Second Tommy John Surgery Mean?

Ohtani underwent Tommy John surgery in October 2018 and didn't see the mound again in a significant capacity until 2021.

Since then, the three-time All-Star has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. In 428.1 innings pitched since 2021, Ohtani has an ERA of 2.84. His pitching contributed to his MVP win in 2021 and his runner-up finish last season. In 2022, he finished fourth in American League Cy Young voting.

Minasian said the Angels were not aware of any significant issues with Ohtani's elbow before Wednesday. Ohtani asked to skip his last pitching start because of arm fatigue, Angels manager Phil Nevin previously said. Ohtani, who has dealt with fingernail and blister ailments in recent weeks, also publicly expressed that he was feeling tired while managing the workload of a two-way player.

Wednesday's start was Ohtani's first appearance on the mound in a game in 14 days. ESPN reported that his average fastball velocity was down to 93.1 mph before he was taken out, nearly 4 mph slower than his season average.

"He never complained about anything," Minasian said. "He had cramps, he was dehydrated, but today is the day. He came out of the game and said, 'Hey, I've got pain in the elbow area.' It's the first day we've heard of any type of pain."

Ohtani has not been made available to reporters.

If Ohtani were to need Tommy John surgery, he may not return as a pitcher until the 2025 season at the earliest. Johns Hopkins Medicine said in a post on its website relating to Tommy John surgery that it can take a year or more before an athlete returns to competition after the procedure. Given that this would be a second surgery, recovery would be more complicated. Dr. Andrew Cosgarea, an orthopedic surgeon and professor at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, told the San Diego Union-Tribune in 2020 that a second Tommy John surgery can lead to mixed results.

"On average, the typical TJ revision isn't as successful as the typical primary TJ," Cosgarea said. "...The first time you drill a hole in the bone it is fresh and clean, but if it happens again you already have a hole there and that hole is filled with scar tissue....Scar tissue isn't as healthy as original tissue. It doesn't have the same blood supply; [it is] not as durable."

How Does Injury Impact His Free Agency Value?

Ohtani has become such a dominant player that even his MLB peers can't quite believe what he can do. During Wednesday's doubleheader, Reds rookie Elly De La Cruz jokingly poked Ohtani to see if he was real.

If anything, De La Cruz's gesture highlights how rare Ohtani's abilities are. His value in free agency was going to reflect that rarity. The two-way player had been tough for experts to find a comparison for in terms of a contract. However, multiple reports before his UCL tear indicated that Ohtani could field offers as high as $600 million.

In light of possible surgery, Ohtani's value just got more confusing.

Jim Bowden, the former senior vice president and general manager of the Reds and Washington Nationals, said on X, formerly Twitter, that Ohtani's value goes down as strictly a hitter. Bowden said Ohtani would have received a deal in the 10-year, $550 million ballpark before his injury. As only a hitter for the time being, Bowden said Ohtani may get offers around $400 million with a player option that would allow him to opt out and seek a new deal if he can return to being a two-way player.

Ben Verlander, a former professional pitcher and current Fox Sports analyst, agreed that Ohtani could seek a shorter deal this offseason and reassess things when fully healthy.

"His free agency has become fascinating," Verlander said, via the Fox Sports website. "This offseason was set to be an unprecedented negotiation. Speculation scaled as high as $600 million, but nobody really knew the kind of contract he would get. Now, we have even less of an idea. I still think we see him get $500 million, if it's a long-term deal. But we now might see a one- or two-year deal as a placeholder until it's clear how he recovers from this."

The Angels, who are on track for their eighth consecutive losing season, opted not to trade Ohtani ahead of the August 1 trade deadline despite his impending free agency. The favorite for AL MVP honors before the injury could still take home the award even if he plays only as a designated hitter the rest of the season (or if he doesn't play at all).

Ohtani leads MLB with 44 home runs, seven triples and a 1.069 OPS. His 97 runs and 78 walks also lead the American League. As a pitcher, he has a 3.14 ERA and 167 strikeouts in 132 innings pitched.