As Sinema Dumps the Dems, Rep. Ruben Gallego Gears Up Run for Her Seat

Representative Ruben Gallego was on a train headed to Ukraine when he heard the news.

Among Arizona Democrats and Capitol Hill aides, rumors started circulating Thursday night that Kyrsten Sinema was going to leave the Democratic Party, news she made official in a Friday morning media blitz.

The decision by the controversial Arizona senator to become an independent has thrown the 2024 Senate race into uncertainty, raising questions about who will face her, and if any candidate can thread the political needle and garner enough support without gifting Republicans a Senate seat.

Gallego was leading a bipartisan delegation of lawmakers to Ukraine that is pushing for more military aid to the embattled nation. Widely considered a top Democratic choice to run against Sinema, he told Newsweek he was "not surprised" by her decision, but noted he was unable to text anyone when the news broke because of security protocols on the trip.

Gallego has publicly and privately indicated he is gearing up for a run. He has brought on Democratic polling firm GBAO Strategies, which worked on successful Senate bids for John Fetterman and Raphael Warnock this cycle, for a "leadership role" in a potential Senate bid, according to Politico.

"We all know he's going to run," a source close to Gallego told Newsweek. "I would be shocked if he didn't make a decision quickly in January."

A second source said that while an official announcement isn't expected until early next year, Gallego is also looking at adding consultants with experience on other Senate campaigns who haven't been announced yet.

Gallego sounded like a prospective candidate in a statement released after Sinema's decision, saying she was putting her own interests and those of big drug companies and Wall Street bankers ahead of those of Arizonans.

Meanwhile, he wrote, in the Marine Corps and in Congress, he has fought for Arizona residents.

The Iraq combat war veteran later told MSNBC that he was going to spend Christmas with his large Latino family, and afterwards "listen to the constituents of Arizona."

Unlike states such as New York, where candidates can run on the Democratic Party line, the Republican Party line, another line such as the progressive Working Families Party, or even on two of those simultaneously (if they have obtained the party endorsement), Arizona has a much more restrictive ballot structure for candidates.

If Gallego were to enter and win the Democratic primary, he would be facing a Republican, and Sinema would have the choice of identifying with the three letters she feels best represent her, which could be "IND" for independent.

It's a scenario some political observers view as a dream scenario — and others see as a nightmare.

Chuck Coughlin, who served as a campaign manager and advisor for former Republican Governor Jan Brewer and is the president of HighGround, loves the idea of seeing what would happen in a race between a Democrat, an independent, and a Republican in a razor-tight state like Arizona.

Sinema could actually win, he told Newsweek, but her path would be difficult to execute, and would begin with garnering some Democratic support in Maricopa County.

"She would have to do that here, not get her a** kicked in Pima County," Coughlin said. "She can't let Ruben get 80% of the Democratic vote there, and she can't get her a** kicked in rural Arizona, either."

But in his view, this perilous path is made more difficult by Sinema's own actions while in office.

"The challenge with her is she's not been out, she's not been touching base with people, she's been sequestered," he explained. "So how does she engage those constituencies? Because she's got to do it."

While some Democrats believe Sinema made the only move she had available to her because her numbers with Democratic voters are so bad, allies of Gallego believe she has put herself in a losing position.

"It dries up her money," one source said. "Republicans won't give her money if they can give to a real Republican, and Democrats won't give if they can give to a credible Democrat."

While Sinema is seen as a spoiler in this view — with Axios reporting that she is threatening "mutually assured destruction" should a Democrat challenge her — there are real financial considerations at play.

For example, the Senate Majority PAC gave Senator Mark Kelly almost $25 million for his re-election campaign this past cycle.

"They're the largest super PAC in the world," said Ian Danley, the former executive director of Arizona Wins, a coalition of more than 30 progressive groups, which knocked on two million doors for Sinema during her initial Senate run, and spent $20 million in 2018 before Democrats soured on her.

"Senate Majority PAC can't support an independent if there's a Democrat in the race," he said, "so there's going to be significant resources for whoever the Democratic nominee is."

An open question is whether Arizona Republicans will once again nominate a so-called MAGA candidate, someone who backs former president Donald Trump and embraces election denialism, as Kari Lake did before losing last month.

Republicans have nominated MAGA candidates in 2020 and 2022, Coughlin said, and if they nominate another "knucklehead" who goes on to lose, they will only have themselves to blame.

But many Democrats fear Sinema playing the role of spoiler makes it easier for a weaker Republican like Lake to actually win.

"I'm concerned Sinema spoils it for everybody," Danley said. "I could see her coming in third and the MAGA candidate being the top vote getter. The MAGA base is not the majority, but it could be a plurality of 32% to 33%.

While some Democrats fear a three-way race, Gallego allies are undeterred, believing they could win such a matchup, with some also arguing that it may end up as a two-way race should Sinema see the writing on the wall and drop out.

But Democrats like Danley feel Sinema is digging in, ready to burn fields of crops behind her in order to win.

"There's no way she backs down," he said, stressing that she likes to be the "center of attention" and viewed as an "iconoclast."

"I don't think she cares about anything, about the Democratic Party, about Democrats being in the majority, I don't know she has a policy agenda that's important to her," he said. "I could see her burning down the house and being perfectly fine with that."

Should Gallego run and win the Democratic primary, Sinema would be ready to portray herself as the sensible choice between him, whom she will paint as far-left, and a possible MAGA candidate.

But Gallego has the opportunity to head that off, Coughlin argued.

"He's got another narrative to him," he said. "I've talked to him about allowing himself to be the 'Hispanic war veteran, Marlboro guy,'" and not the "Harvard-educated, progressive guy."

Luis Avila, a Phoenix-based community organizer who works with progressive activists, said other Democrats may run against Gallego in the primary, which is why an announcement in the New Year and a show of force in terms of fundraising makes sense.

"Gallego has a good track record, and rose to national prominence after he led the fight against the insurrection," he said.

But Avila also stressed that anyone thinking of running must raise money and start getting the support of community groups and prominent Arizonans.

"She's going to have a lot of money," he warned. "She's acting in her own self-interest and in the interest of people with money, so Democrats have to start early and unify if they want to beat her."