South Korea Warns of 2024 Nuclear Weapons Domino Effect

Analysts are warning of nuclear tests in 2024 by Russia and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) in sync with the U.S. presidential election.

North Korea is one of Russia's most favorable allies, notably following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In September, U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller condemned a "burgeoning military relationship" between the two countries that he said "will further undermine the global non-proliferation regime."

An acceleration of North Korea's nuclear weapons program as part of a "new Cold War" with the U.S. has been viewed by some, including Western leaders, as an unrealistic threat that has perhaps emboldened North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to be more aggressive.

Analysts at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a South Korea-funded think tank, said Wednesday that Russia will likely conduct its first nuclear test in more than 30 years following its March 2024 presidential election—a strategic decision that may encourage Kim and North Korea to carry out its first nuclear test since 2017, as part of a larger military reinforcement tactic between Moscow and Pyongyang.

"To demonstrate its military capabilities to the world and its own people, Russia is expected to conduct a nuclear test next year," said think tank expert Hyun Seung-soo, according to The Korea Times. "This could give fresh impetus to North Korea's own nuclear test."

Seung-soo added that both countries likely would not deliberate amongst one another before their expected tests. However, Pyongyang could factor in its own timing based on Russia's moves as a show of anti-U.S. sentiment.

Asked about the possibility of the two countries' coordination prior to the expected nuclear tests, Kim Jin-ha, another senior analyst at the South Korean think tank, said that's unlikely. He, however, said Pyongyang may factor the Russian timing into its own as the two states share the same goal of strengthening a global anti-U.S. coalition.

He believes North Korea's next test will likely focus on exhibiting its nuclear-strike ability in a real war situation.

"One possible scenario is to test-fire Haeil (a North Korean underwater drone claimed to be capable of carrying a nuclear warhead) ... Because the regime needs to prove its capability to actually operate nuclear weapons (to seek disarmament negotiations with the U.S. eventually) with real evidence," he said.

Jenny Town, senior fellow at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington, D.C., and director of Stimson's 38 North Program that analyzes North Korea, told Newsweek via email that such predictions should be considered as conjecture or political posturing, considering that analysts have predicted North Korea's seventh nuclear test for the past two years.

"Conducting another test at some point will depend a lot on the political situation at that time," Town said. "Presumably, North Korea's relations with China over the next few months will likely factor into any decision making along with the success of any kind of reopening efforts to bring about economic improvements.

"North Korea has talked about mass production of nuclear warheads already, meaning they may have decided a long time ago they didn't need to do additional testing anytime soon to meet their goals."

Russian President Vladimir Putin, 71, is expected to coast in next year's election, which would mark his fifth term in office.

The results of that election will likely be viewed differently outside of Russia than inside it, not aided by recent comments by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.

"Our presidential election is not really democracy, it is costly bureaucracy," Peskov told The New York Times in an article published August 6. "Mr. Putin will be re-elected next year with more than 90 percent of the vote."