South Pacific Sees US-China Tussle As Beijing Secures New Ally

The U.S. and China are currently jostling for influence in the Pacific, with Washington stepping back into the region as Beijing's influence grows.

On January 16, Nauru switched ties from Taipei to Beijing following the election of Lai Ching-te as the next president of Taiwan. Nauru's decision to switch ties has brought attention to a pitched battle for influence in the Pacific between the U.S. and China.

While Beijing's engagement with South Pacific nations brings potential benefits in terms of economic development, it also raises concerns about the long-term implications of Chinese influence in the region.

Some experts worry that increased Chinese investment and influence could lead to a debt trap, where nations become overly dependent on Chinese loans and investments, potentially compromising their sovereignty.

In a show of commitment to Pacific Island nations, President Joe Biden announced significant initiatives on September 25, 2023, during the Pacific Island Forum (PIF) summit. He unveiled new infrastructure funding and a $10 million investment, in partnership with the Quad alliance, to enhance maritime domain awareness in the Pacific.

Discussions in Washington ranged from climate action to strengthening partnerships.

Biden emphasized the importance of collective efforts in shaping the world's future, recognizing the Pacific's pivotal role. He highlighted diplomatic relations with the Cook Islands and Niue, economic agreements, new U.S. Embassies, Peace Corps reinstatement, and increased academic exchanges as steps toward building a better world together.

The summit also provided the opportunity to formally celebrate the U.S.' diplomatic relations with the Cook Islands and Niue. The commitment to Pacific Island nations underscores America's dedication to forging lasting partnerships in the region. However, the leaders of some Pacific Island nations have also grown close to Beijing in recent years.

Besides the U.S., Canberra has stepped up its efforts to win over Pacific Island countries as Australia's traditional backyard witnesses a pitched battle with Beijing.

U.S. Allied

The United States' historical involvement in the South Pacific region has revolved around two key aspects: administration and defense. In 1947, a pivotal United Nations mandate entrusted the U.S. with the administration of the islands of Micronesia, marking the birth of the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands.

Under this arrangement, the U.S. Navy took on responsibility for safeguarding the islands, while the U.S. Department of the Interior managed administrative affairs.

Motivated by the global decolonization movement, the territories faced a crucial decision: either become U.S. territories or assert their sovereignty as freely associated states, with the option to sign a Compact of Free Association (COFA) with the United States.

The Northern Mariana Islands chose commonwealth status in the late 1970s, but Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia, and the Republic of the Marshall Islands opted to become freely associated states. Palau's COFA came into effect in 1994, with Micronesia and the Marshall Islands following suit in 1986.

These COFAs transformed the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and Palau into the Freely Associated States (FAS), an integral part of the United States' Pacific strategy. Over the years, a close partnership developed between the U.S. and the FAS. However, recent developments have begun to strain this relationship as Beijing has found ways to poach Washington's Pacific traditional partners.

In pursuing its strategic interests, the U.S. has sometimes taken for granted the political support and security cooperation of the FAS. This approach has led to a critical juncture where these countries' support for the U.S. is no longer guaranteed. As the South Pacific continues to evolve, the U.S. faces the challenge of re-calibrating its approach to ensure a steadfast and enduring alliance with the Freely Associated States.

China Allied

As China continues to expand its global footprint, its influence in the South Pacific region has become increasingly apparent. In recent years, China has fostered alliances with several Pacific nations, marking a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of the region.

One of the driving factors behind China's outreach to South Pacific countries is its Belt and Road Initiative, a massive infrastructure development program that aims to connect Asia with Europe and Africa through a network of roads, railways, ports, and other infrastructure projects. Several South Pacific nations have expressed interest in participating in this initiative, seeing it as an opportunity for much-needed infrastructure development and economic growth.

Among China's allies in the region is Fiji, which has benefited from Chinese investments in roads, bridges, and government buildings. Papua New Guinea has also forged closer ties with China through various economic partnerships, including resource development and trade agreements.

Furthermore, China has become a significant provider of aid and development assistance to South Pacific countries, further solidifying its presence in the region. This assistance has encompassed a wide range of sectors, including healthcare, education, and disaster relief.

Another example of China's significant advancement in securing the support of Pacific countries is the case of the Solomon Islands.

The Solomon Islands ended ties with Taipei in 2019, marking a shift in its foreign policy to court Beijing. In July 2023, the Solomon Islands signed a policing pact with Beijing, which sent alarm bells ringing in Washington and Canberra.