Raiders, Jets Biggest Movers of NFL Offseason According to Analytical Model

With free agency just about wrapped up, NFL experts are starting to analyze how teams stack now after plenty of changes to their teams. Some teams didn't change that much, while others look drastically different now, for better or for worse.

Most people will provide opinions based on how they view players to give grades are general outlooks of how teams now fare regarding a push for the playoffs.

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However, The Athletic went with a slightly different approach, making an analytical model to highlight the biggest movers of the offseason.

According to the model, which uses expected points added, the Las Vegas Raiders are the biggest riser of the offseason, while the New York Jets are the biggest faller.

The Raiders' main acquisition was Geno Smith, which given he is a huge upgrade at quarterback from Gardner Minshew at the most important position in football, likely boosts their offseason tremendously from a numbers standpoint.

They also made plenty of solid additions at other spots across the board and added Pete Carroll as head coach. All of that amounts to what could be considered the best offseason in the NFL.

It will be interesting to see just how much better the team is next season with a chance for a great draft, but an extremely tough division that could hold them back.

The Jets being last in the ranking isn't too shocking either, especially after moving on from both Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams, two players at important positions that likely added a ton of expected points to an otherwise underwhelming roster.

Justin Fields was brought in as the new starting quarterback, which considering he didn't play much last year, is viewed as a huge downgrade based on the numbers.

The team also lost D.J. Reed, an important starting cornerback, amounting to even more negative subtractions to their overall numbers.

The other clear winners based on the numbers are the Giants and the Patriots. The Giants, like the Raiders, added a new quarterback which likely boosts their expected points greatly.

The Patriots made a bunch of significant additions, which all add up to a great offseason, even if some of the players seemed overpaid.

Seeing the 49ers and Eagles so low isn't that surprising based on who they lost, but both teams should still be competitive, unlike the Jets.

As defending Super Bowl champions, the Eagles naturally struggled to pay everyone, but should still be fine and contend again for a championship, especially with a good draft of retooling at newfound positions of need.

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