Strikes 'Wasted' Russia's Weapons, 'May Deprive Putin of Options': ISW

Russia's campaign of airstrikes on Ukrainian cities early Monday could leave Russian President Vladimir Putin out of options due to a depletion of weapons, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank.

Russian missile and drone attacks hit more than 20 cities in Ukraine, killing at least 14 people, injuring nearly 100 others and damaging critical infrastructure in many areas. The attacks followed a massive explosion on Saturday that damaged the Kerch Strait Bridge, which connects Russia to the annexed Crimean peninsula and acts as a key supply line for the Russian military. While Ukraine has not taken responsibility, Putin has said that the airstrikes were in retaliation for the apparent attack on the bridge.

A Monday ISW assessment of the Russian offensive suggested that the retaliatory strikes could represent a new miscalculation for Putin. The report argues that the Russian military "wasted" vital weapons on civilian targets instead of using them on more strategically important military targets, potentially leaving them without the tools they need to defend against Ukraine's ongoing southern and eastern counteroffensives.

"Russian attacks wasted some of Russia's dwindling precision weapons against civilian targets, as opposed to militarily significant targets," the ISW assessment states. "The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces successfully completed the mission of striking Ukrainian military command centers, signal infrastructure, and energy systems in Ukraine. Social media shows that Russians instead hit a children's playground, a park, a German consulate, and a business center among other non-military targets."

"Ukrainian air defenses also shot down half of the Russian drones and cruise missiles," it continues. "Russian attacks on the Ukrainian energy grid will not likely break Ukraine's will to fight, but Russia's use of its limited supply of precision weapons in this role may deprive Putin of options to disrupt ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensives in Kherson and Luhansk."

Over half of the weapons that the Russian military did use in the attacks may have been destroyed by Ukraine without ever reaching their target. The weapons that were used cost between $400 million and $700 million, according to an estimate from Forbes.

Russia launched over 84 cruise missile during the air offensive, with Ukrainian air defense forces shooting down 43 of them, according to ISW. Additionally, 24 drones were used in the attacks, including 13 Iranian-made "Shahed-136" kamikaze drones. ISW said that Ukraine successfully shot down 10 of the Iranian-made drones and three other unspecified ones.

The weapons that did successfully reach their targets caused significant damage. Over 1,300 settlements across the Kyiv, Lviv, Sumy, Ternopil and Khmelnytsky regions remained without power on Monday night due to the airstrikes, according to the State Emergency Service of Ukraine. Over 1,000 emergency workers were reportedly involved in rescue and firefighting operations after the attacks.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Russia of taking part in "terrorism" by launching the attacks, while vowing to repair the damage, strengthen the counteroffensives and make the war "even more excruciating" for Russian soldiers.

"We are doing everything to strengthen our armed forces," Zelensky said in a televised address on Monday. "And now the occupiers already cannot oppose us on the battlefield, that is why they resort to this terror. Well, we'll make the battlefield even more excruciating for the enemy. And we will restore everything that was destroyed."

Newsweek has reached out to ISW and the Russian government for comment.