Student Loan Cancellation Gives Biden 'Anger Fuel' for Campaign

President Joe Biden's continuing fight over student debt forgiveness is putting his reelection campaign in a win-win situation, political experts say.

Despite a major setback from the Supreme Court last month, Biden has continued to push for other measures that would reduce borrowers' $1.6 trillion in federal student loans. After the court's conservative justices struck down his one-time plan forgiving $10,000 per borrower ($20,000 for Pell Grant recipients), Biden unveiled finalized details of an updated repayment plan, which could help some borrowers cut their monthly payments down to $0.

This separate Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) plan is already facing pushback from Republicans, who say Biden's "objective remains unchanged." It has also prompted warnings that new lawsuits could deal another blow to Biden's efforts to provide debt relief.

But whether or not the president wins those legal challenges may not affect his odds of winning reelection. In fact, both outcomes could give him a boost among voters.

"This is a win-win for President Biden," political consultant Jay Townsend told Newsweek.

Even if Biden's repayment program is blocked by the Supreme Court, he's likely to benefit from "great anger fuel for a political campaign next year," Townsend said.

Biden's efforts to directly address the financial struggles of borrowers who faced record-high college costs and onerous loan terms are likely to fare well among younger voters, who also saw economic hardship brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Daniel Urman, a law professor at Northeastern University, told Newsweek that Biden's relief plans "symbolize his efforts to relieve millennials and Gen Z voters of their staggering college debt" and are likely to help him boost young voter turnout in 2024.

In recent years, younger voters have turned up at the polls in record numbers, and their ability to sway elections has shown how strong their political muscle is. In 2020, voters under 30 made up 38 percent of new or irregular voters, even though they represented just 15 percent of all voters. Exit polls also showed that nearly half of Biden voters were younger than 50, compared with only 39 percent of Trump voters.

Biden is likely to hold on to those voters as he tries to forgive student loan debt. Nearly 35 percent of Americans 18 to 29 say they have student loan debt, and over 32 percent of the nation's federal student loan debt belongs to borrowers in their 30s, according to the Education Data Initiative. Comparably, only 4 percent of federal borrowers are 62 and older.

"Many average voters are skeptical about student debt relief, but it's not their top issue. For young borrowers, it is a life-shaping concern that could drive them to the polls," John Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College, told Newsweek.

Biden's 2020 voters were also more racially and ethnically diverse than Trump's. This could be particularly important for the sitting president since the issue of student debt has an outsized impact on borrowers of color. Black college graduates owe about $25,000 more in loans than their white counterparts do, according to the Education Data Initiative, and over half of Black college graduates say their net worth is less than their outstanding debt.

Even if Biden's efforts lose in the courts, he's likely to win politically, according to Urman. By portraying the GOP-appointed Supreme Court justices who strike down his efforts to provide loan relief as villains, Biden will likely gain political support from the millions of borrowers hoping to see their debts forgiven, he said.

Townsend said that if Biden's SAVE plan is struck down, he can still say he tried but was "stopped by a Republican Supreme Court and a recalcitrant Republican Congress."

"If Biden wins, he gets their gratitude for winning. If he loses, he still gets credit for fighting," Pitney said. "And in the long run, losing could have an added benefit for Democrats."