Subtropical Storm Nicole Radar and Satellite Shows Path Towards Florida

A subtropical storm system that was named Nicole on November 7 is making its way toward Florida.

Nicole is moving westwards toward the middle of the eastern Florida coast, according to radar and satellite imagery. It's forecast to hit land on November 9 during the evening, local time.

"Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected today and on Wednesday. Nicole is forecast to be at or near hurricane intensity by Wednesday or Wednesday night while it is moving near or over the northwestern Bahamas," said the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast.

The storm could be seen inching toward Florida in satellite images and on radar. While meteorologists have a fairly good idea of where the storm is headed, weather systems are temperamental, and can change course and intensity unexpectedly.

"The track of the storm is determined by the environmental winds which steer the vortex. What can introduce uncertainty in the track forecast is when these steering winds vary across a short distance," Sam Lillo, a forecast engineer at DTN Weather, told Newsweek.

"So for example, if the storm drifts just a little north or south, it could dramatically change what steering winds are influencing it. Also sometimes when a new storm forms and is weak and not quite consolidated yet, the center of the storm can wobble around a lot, again changing what the environmental winds are that subsequently steers it forward. This is why spaghetti model plots are so useful! We can visualize a range of possible outcomes and how much spread or uncertainty is inherent in the forecast."

The NHC forecast states that the whole of Florida is likely to experience intense storms, with areas closest to where the storm hits being placed under hurricane watch.

According to the NHC, "winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 310 miles from the center." Once a tropical storm exceeds wind speeds of 74 mph, it is reclassified as a hurricane. Nicole may reach this threshold in the coming days, forecasters say.

"There are a few main environmental factors that influence how powerful a storm can get. The most popular factor is the temperature of the ocean water beneath the storm," Lillo said.

"Wind blowing over water causes an exchange of moisture into the atmosphere, encouraging the growth of deep clouds and heating that intensifies low pressure at the surface, ultimately strengthening the winds and furthering this feedback loop. The warmer the water is, the more moisture and heat that can fuel the storm, and the stronger this feedback process becomes."

Limiting factors to a storm's power include dry air masses that can get dragged into the storm and reduce the growth of deep clouds, as well as environmental wind shear, which is where winds change speed and direction as you go up in the atmosphere.

"Wind shear can encourage dry air entrainment, and can also tilt, displace, and tear apart the vortex of the storm causing it to weaken. Finally, there is land interaction, which can cut off the fuel source for the storm, and introduce friction slowing the winds. Computer models account for all of these factors in determining how strong a tropical storm will get," Lillo said.

Storm surges, flash flooding and heavy rainfall are expected along the southeast coast and in the Bahamas. With the increasing effects of climate change, hurricanes are expected to get more powerful and last longer.

"With respect to climate change, ocean temperatures in this region are already normally warm enough to support tropical development, so it's the wind shear aspect that really makes the difference," Lillo said.

"Anomalous high pressure ridges like this one over the eastern U.S. are becoming more common in the changing climate, which may allow more tropical storms to develop later in the season and also unfortunately increase potential for U.S. landfall."