Super Bowl LVIII: Four 49ers Keys That Could Determine Sunday's Winner

The Super Bowl LVIII stage is approaching and, yes, it does have a familiar setup. A Super Bowl Sunday showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs in a leap year, just a handful of months ahead of a presidential election? The NFL has been here before.

But the Niners should hope that history from four years ago isn't fully repeating itself.

Andy Reid's Chiefs overcame a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit—with a little help from Jet Chip Wasp—to Kyle Shanahan's 49ers to win Super Bowl LIV last time in Miami. The two teams will take the gridiron with a Lombardi Trophy on the line again at 6:30 p.m. ET on Sunday in Las Vegas, with plenty of new faces on both sides from the first matchup (technically this includes Taylor Swift), as well as some still around that San Francisco knows well enough to fear (Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce and Chris Jones, oh my!).

Confetti showered down from the sky—well, the rafters—above when the final seconds ticked off the clock in the last championship battle between these teams. A rowdy trophy presentation ensued. The same will happen in the aftermath of the rematch inside Allegiant Stadium, though this time the 49ers hope the celebratory gear will match their shades of red and gold instead.

For that to happen, here are four 49ers keys to watch over four quarters of action Sunday.

Will Shanahan Outduel Spagnuolo?

What if, and stay with things here, the premier portion of Sunday's game actually occurs when Mahomes and Kelce are off the field? Because the most crucial Super Bowl matchup in Vegas could be a battle of who wins more scheme bets between Shanahan, perhaps the league's preeminent offensive play-caller, and Kansas City's Steve Spagnuolo, potentially the most respected defensive coordinator in the NFL.

The 49er's offense this season reads similarly to an overachiever's report card—third in points, second in yards, and first in EPA per drive, Success Rate and DVOA. And KC's suddenly stout defense, which at times has overshadowed the team's star-studded other side of the ball, allowed the second-fewest points and yards—plus posted marks of seventh in DVOA and fifth in EPA per drive.

Basically, it's going to be strength versus strength. And what more could football fanatics ask for (shhh, still-distraught Lions fans, that was rhetorical)?

There have been plenty of back-and-forths between Shanahan's offenses and Spags' defenses over the years at a variety of stops—including Super Bowl LIV and a 44-23 Chiefs regular season in 2022. But plenty has changed since.

So, what should be expected on San Francisco's side of this coaching dual?

49ers tight end George Kittle joked earlier in the week that the team's game plan was to simply give the NFL's rushing leader, dual-threat back Christian McCaffrey, the ball every play. A fun answer, but also perhaps not far off. San Fran has plenty at its offensive disposal—a quarterback in Brock Purdy who has proved nearly perfect at running Shanahan's system (which, by the way, doesn't mean he's just a "system QB"), skill players aplenty (McCaffrey, Kittle and wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk all have 1,000+ scrimmage yards), maybe the best left tackle in football (Trent Williams) and the list goes on. But of all its many options, San Francisco's best tactic may be to feed McCaffrey, not exactly a mind-blowing strategy, and take advantage of Kansas City's biggest weakness.

The 49ers finished second in rushing efficiency during the regular season. The Chiefs finished down at 27th. Shanahan's ground game also placed third in total yards, first in scores and fourth in yards per attempt. And that success came in a variety of ways. In a league that loves a spread offense, the 49ers are still dedicated to 21 personnel. And 22. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk is as versatile as a piece of fabric in his now-famous wife's hands—lining up all over the field to do the dirty work and pummel defenders out of McCaffrey's way.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs often like to use subpackages to take advantage of their best defensive asset—the secondary. That's tough to do when the opponent brings out a tight end or two, plus a fullback. And not to mention, it was only a few weeks ago when the Bills running game gashed the Chiefs (as a reminder, isn't it odd the Ravens didn't try to run the ball more?).

Sure, Jones is going to be a handful up front. And aside from Williams, the 49ers' offensive line leaves some things to be desired—particularly on the right side. But don't be surprised if the degree of San Francisco's running-game success dictates Sunday's result.

Spags has already proved himself at the Super Bowl level. His underdog Giants contained Tom Brady, Randy Moss and the undefeated New England Patriots for a title, which he has won two more of while turning KC's unit into one of the best in the league. But for Shanahan, Super Bowl Sunday comes with some dark memories. There was, as Falcons offensive coordinator, the mismanaged fourth quarter in the infamous 28-3 game. And then he watched a Lombardi be snatched away again four years ago. Two Super Bowls. Two double-digit leads. Two losses.

And now, one chance to avenge it all.

"In terms of pain, I broke my arm and my collarbone and a lot of things," the coach said Tuesday at San Francisco's team hotel. "Those are more painful. But losing a [Super Bowl] lasts a while.

"If you win, I bet it's going to be pretty damn special."

Can Purdy Remain Calm Under Pressure(s)?

Quickly upon his arrival in Vegas this week, Shanahan recalled a vivid—and annoying—memory from a practice early in the team's 2022 training camp. Ownership approached the coach with the ever-present question of, "Hey, how's the quarterback?" And in this case, the answer 49ers decision-makers were seeking was one related to 2021 No. 3 pick Trey Lance, or maybe veteran starter Jimmy Garoppolo.

But that wasn't who Shanahan had in mind.

"In irritation, I go, 'I don't know, but our third guy is the best,'" he recalled.

That "third guy" was Brock Purdy. And "Mr. Irrelevant" has become so much more than that moniker would suggest, including the MVP-caliber starter in San Francisco that got the Niners back to the big game after some notable near-misses.

The latest challenge soon to be in front of the MVP finalist will be dealing with the pressure—well pressures—Sunday will present. Sure, that includes the jitters of playing on the sport's biggest day. But Xs and Os-wise, Spagnuolo's defense loves to bring the heat. All season long, KC has pestered QBs with coverage disguises and rotations, but perhaps above all else they love to blitz. And successfully so. The Chiefs sent extra rushers on 37.5 percent of opposing dropbacks during the regular season (fifth-highest in the NFL), per Next Gen Stats, generating a 62.7 percent defensive success rate (which ranked third in the league). Just two weeks ago, Kansas City brought the ever-elusive Lamar Jackson down four times and registered seven quarterback hits.

But disrupting Purdy in the same way may be difficult.

San Francisco's QB has been at his most productive when blitzed this season, gaining a league-high +53.2 passing EPA in those scenarios in the regular season. Purdy also led the NFL with 11 touchdowns on passes outside the tackle box, four of which came against the blitz. And lately, the Iowa State product is first, or tied for the lead, in passing yards per attempt, touchdowns and passer rating this postseason against a blitz.

Not bad at all.

Purdy—21-5 as an NFL starter—led a late comeback against the Green Bay Packers in the Divisional Round. He didn't flinch when the Niners were down 17 in the NFC Championship Game to the Detroit Lions. And when facing literal pressure, he's excelled.

As legends Joe Montana and Steve Young told him leading up to Sunday, he just needs to continue to be himself when the lights are at their brightest.

Because at this point—long removed from ownership doubts—that should be enough.

Is Nick Bosa About to Take Over?

The previously mentioned Jet Chip Wasp play from the prior Super Bowl encounter—which resulted in a 44-yard completion from Mahomes to Tyreek Hill—changed the course of the game and, upon a Kansas City win, went into Super Bowl history. But a few years later, the 49ers still aren't convinced the play should have even stood.

"I remember Nick Bosa getting held on third-and-long and that not getting called," 49ers CEO Jed York said in a packed media scrum this week.

And speaking of both Bosa and holding, the 26-year-old pass-rusher—who could be the secret to turning Sunday into a no-good, very bad day for Mahomes and the Chiefs—doesn't seem too concerned about Kansas City's offensive line heading into their Allegiant Stadium clash, other than possibly being impeded on his way to the backfield. When asked about KC's starting tackles last week, Bosa said they held a lot. Not exactly high praise. But also not incorrect.

Chiefs right tackle Jawaan Taylor has been called for 24 penalties this season, including the playoffs. Twenty. Four. Bosa pressured Mahomes on nine dropbacks in Super Bowl LIV, according to Net Gen Stats, and needs just 11 on Sunday to set the NGS-era single-season record. That's going to be a lot for KC to handle—specifically Taylor.

The four-time Pro Bowler lines up on the left edge on nearly 70 percent of his defensive snaps. That would match him up with Taylor, who more than holds his own against most pass-rushers when he's not, ya know, holding.

Still, Bosa on Taylor one-on-one would be a very favorable mismatch for the 49ers.

So the Chiefs have to do something to shake up the Niners' pass rush—whether that's throwing multiple blockers at Bosa or throwing the quick screens Reid loves so much or trying to move the pocket. Otherwise, Kansas City risks a Bosa takeover. And even though Mahomes—dad bod and all— is among the league's best in avoiding sacks (he was only brought down on roughly 10 percent of pressures this season), that off-schedule recipe isn't always a sustainable one.

But assuming Bosa is kept relatively quiet, how will the 49ers respond? The former No. 2 pick had more than double as many QB hits as any other Niner during the regular season. And Javon Hargrave (a high-priced free agent) and Chase Young (a, to this point, very underwhelming trade deadline acquisition) have teamed up for zero this postseason.

Bosa could be Kansas City's downfall on Sunday. But if he isn't, will anyone else up front for San Francisco take his difference-making place? Or will another Super Bowl come and go where the main takeaway on San Fran's defensive line is a holding complaint?

How Does 49ers' Defense Handle Kelce?

Kansas City's nine-time Pro Bowl tight end took a microphone atop the main stage inside Allegiant Stadium on Opening Night, a Super Bowl cap covering a haircut that—for reasons he can't quite explain—has gone viral. And as Kelce, standing next to Kittle, took the spotlight, the 49ers faithful let him know "All Too Well" that they knew he was trouble.

"Y'all are firing me up, making me want to play right now baby," said Kelce, who started to jump in place as the venue filled with boos. "I love the boos more than I love the cheers, baby. Keep them coming, 49ers gang. Keep them coming."

Oh, they will. But at this point, Niners fans can only hope that the popstar-dating tight end doesn't give them reasons to groan come Sunday.

The 49ers defense under coordinator Steve Wilks adds a new wrinkle or look into the mix when needed, but largely sticks to a four-man rush and zone coverage principles. And that's, for the most part, been a reliable strategy. San Fran finished the regular season third in the NFL in points per game allowed, allowed the fourth-fewest yards per attempt while playing zone and more specifically fourth in DVOA, according to The Ringer, against opposing tight ends.

But Kelce is, well, Kelce.

The 34-year-old is coming off a masterpiece of a performance against the Ravens (11 catches, 116 yards and a TD) and recently teamed up with Mahomes to become the most prolific postseason scoring duo in league history. Kelce tallied 962 yards against zone coverage this season, per Pro Football Focus. And he has an innate ability to track down a hole in a defense's zone—like a Swiftie can instantaneously crack any Taylor-related Easter Egg. Reid praised San Francisco's inside linebacking tandem of Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw this week, calling them the most athletic linebackers in the league who "do a nice job." Kelce even called Greenlaw specifically a "dog," in an endearing way.

And whether they and San Fran's back seven in general live up to that praise could determine how much "Blank Space" is available for KC's passing game.