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Two of the best NFL offenses collide in Super Bowl LIV on Sunday, as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the San Francisco 49ers.
There is little to choose from between the two teams, with the Chiefs arriving in Miami, Florida, as a 1.5-point favorite—only the fifth team to go into the NFL championship game with a spread smaller than two points.
Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes is the bookmakers' pick to be named Super Bowl MVP, which would see him join an illustrious list of quarterbacks to receive the award.
In the history of the Super Bowl, a signal caller has been named MVP 29 times—including seven times in the last decade alone—and the trend looks set to continue on Sunday.
According to William Hill, Mahomes is a 5/6 favorite to win the award on Sunday, followed by his 49ers counterpart, Jimmy Garoppolo, at 5/2.
The duo have a combined career winning percentage of 79.4, the highest by opposing quarterbacks in the Super Bowl and the difference in odds can be traced back to the approach of their respective teams.
Mahomes is pivotal to the Chiefs' pass-heavy offense. The reigning NFL MVP has thrown for 615 yards and eight touchdown passes in two postseason games, during which he sparked crucial comebacks against the Houston Texans and the Tennessee Titans.
Against the 49ers, Mahomes will come against one of the elite defenses in the NFL. San Francisco ranked second in the league in total defense, first against the pass and sixth in takeaways.
Led by Nick Bosa, the 49ers pass rush has been devastating this season, sacking the quarterback in nine percent of plays, and will target Mahomes on Sunday.
To complicate his job even further, in Richard Sherman and Emmanuel Moseley, San Francisco has two corners capable of limiting the Chiefs' skill-position players.
While neutralizing Mahomes is crucial for the 49ers, limiting Garoppolo may not be enough for the Chiefs. In fact, it may not even be strictly necessary.
The former Tom Brady's understudy in New England—he won two Super Bowls with the Patriots—has thrown for only 208 yards in his two playoff games combined as the 49ers leaned heavily on their run game.
In the NFC Championship Game against the Green Bay Packers, Garoppolo completed just six passes.
San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan has stressed Garoppolo "should never apologize for us running the ball too well", hinting the 49ers could again turn to the three-headed monster of Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman.
The 49ers running game caused havoc in both playoff games, rushing for 186 yards against the Minnesota Vikings in the divisional round and for a jaw-dropping 285 yards in the NFC Championship against the Green Bay Packers.
Raheem Mostert was responsible for 220 of the latter, a new franchise record and the second-most in NFL postseason history.
At 8/1 Mostert is the third-favorite to be named MVP, something a running back hasn't done since Terrell Davis won the award at Super Bowl XXXII when he rushed for 157 yards and three touchdowns as the Denver Broncos defeated the Green Bay Packers 31-24.
The Chiefs defense ranked 26th in the league against the rush, but allowed just 85 yards against the Tennessee Titans in the AFC Championship, limiting NFL's leading rusher Derrick Henry to 69 yards.
If the 49ers manage to impose their running game and win a first Super Bowl in 25 years, expect Mostert to feature prominently.
Behind Mahomes, the next Chiefs players in line to win the award are Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, both at 18/1.
Both of them should thrive if the Chiefs and Mahomes can get their passing game going.
According to Next Gen Stats, Kelce was targeted 114 times during the regular season by Mahomes, who completed 73.7 percent of those passes at an average of 9.8 yards per attempt.
Hill, meanwhile, has scored two touchdowns in two playoff games, hauling in eight of his 11 targets for 108 yards.
About the writer
Dan Cancian is currently a reporter for Newsweek based in London, England. Prior to joining Newsweek in January 2018, he ... Read more