Supreme Court Ruling Could Spell Donald Trump's Demise

Special Counsel Jack Smith was likely waiting on the Supreme Court's decision on the "independent state legislature theory" before deciding to proceed with charges against the former president over Jan. 6, a conservative former judge has said.

On Tuesday, the Supreme Court shot down the controversial independent state legislature theory, which would have had the potential to radically change the way elections are run across the country. According to the fringe legal theory, legislatures have exclusive and near-absolute power in setting the rules of federal elections, without being challenged by state courts.

But a majority of justices voted to reaffirm that state courts can curtail the actions of their legislatures, rejecting arguments from the Republican-dominated North Carolina legislature.

Chief Justice John Roberts was joined by conservative Justices Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett and the court's three liberals, Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson, in the 6 to 3 vote that declined to adopt the theory. Three conservative sitting justices endorsed it—Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito and Neil Gorsuch.

The theory was embraced by Donald Trump and his allies after the 2020 election, when it became a key part of their efforts to overturn the results that gave Joe Biden victory.

During an interview with CNN on Tuesday, conservative former U.S. appeals court judge J. Michael Luttig said that the independent state legislature theory was "the centerpiece of that effort to overturn the 2020 presidential election"—and that it's likely that Smith and the DOJ were waiting for the court's decision to proceed with charges against Trump over Jan. 6.

Smith oversaw the classified documents probe that led to Trump's federal indictment and is also investigating the former president's efforts to overturn the 2020 election results and his role in the Jan. 6 insurrection.

According to Luttig, Smith and the DOJ "are scrutinizing that plan, the centerpiece of which was the independent state legislature theory."

The former judge added that, if he were in Smith's place: "I believe I would have needed today's decision from the Supreme Court of the United States in order to proceed with charges against the former president and his allies and compatriots in connection with the Jan. 6 events."

The Supreme Court's decision to shoot down the controversial theory might now hinder Trump's legal cover if he's prosecuted for his attempts to overturn the 2020 election's results.

The decision will allow state courts to continue weighing in on disputes over federal election rules, though Roberts wrote that their power is not unlimited. The court declined to address where that limit might be.

"Although we conclude that the Elections Clause does not exempt state legislatures from the ordinary constraints imposed by state law, state courts do not have free rein," Roberts wrote. "We hold only that state courts may not transgress the ordinary bounds of judicial review such that they arrogate to themselves the power vested in state legislatures to regulate federal elections."