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On Sunday morning, a lightning offensive by Syrian rebels ended with the dramatic fall of Damascus, marking the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime after 13 years of devastating civil war. One of the most consequential moments in the Middle East's recent history was set in motion by a chain of events that few could have anticipated, least of all Hamas and Israel, whose war inadvertently played a pivotal role. Now comes the tough part, where the Middle East either gets better, or even worse.
The fall of Assad is a stark reminder of how unintended consequences shape history. Israel and the West were long ambivalent about Assad's fate. He is a butcher who used chemical weapons against his own people and led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands, yet his control over Syria offered predictability, even tacit stability, in a volatile region.
And critically, the coalition arrayed against him seemed dominated by Islamists – and, let's face it, the West has hated political Islam ever since the mullahs of Iran engineered the US hostage crisis 45 years ago. This is, at the end of the day, Samuel Huntington's "Clash of Civilizations." It's real.
In the unintended consequences bucket, Assad's ability to cling to power for so long relied heavily on Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia that until recently was one of the most powerful non-state armies in the world. But Hezbollah was thrashed by Israel in the recent fighting in Lebanon—and it is probably not a coincidence that the decisive rebel offensive came immediately thereafter.
The unravelling can be traced back to the catastrophic Oct. 7, 2023, assault by Hamas on Israel, in which the Iran-backed Palestinian terrorist group massacred 1,200 people and kidnapped about 250 back into Gaza. That triggered an unprecedented Israeli response that ended up decimating the Iran-led "Axis of Resistance."
In Gaza, Israel systematically dismantled Hamas' leadership (while causing horrific damage to Gaza's civilian population). In Lebanon, Hezbollah decided to pile on, launching over a year of rocket attacks the day after the Hamas invasion, and it too has suffered devastating losses.
And in Syria, Israeli strikes on Iranian assets further weakened the position of Assad, who had turned his country into a superhighway of Iranian arms delivery to Hezbollah in Lebanon. These strikes targeted weapons depots, Iranian bases, and key logistical routes, severely degrading Tehran's ability to support its proxies. The cumulative effect of these actions left the Axis of Resistance fragmented, demoralized, and weakened.
Moreover, Iran, the architect of this regional alliance, has been grievously exposed, and Israeli air strikes have weakened its air defences. Its proxies are fractured, and its credibility as a regional powerbroker is in tatters.
The toppling of Assad also weakens Russian influence in the Middle East, as Moscow was a key supporter of his regime.
For Israel, all this is a double-edged sword. The dismantling of the Axis of Resistance represents a strategic victory, but the risks are significant. Rebel forces now controlling Syria are dominated by groups with ties to extremist ideologies, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a group with al-Qaeda roots. This raises the specter of Syria becoming a failed state—or worse, a terrorist stronghold.
Moreover, Assad's fall may invite new powers into Syria's vacuum. Turkey, Russia, and others could assert influence, potentially destabilizing the region further. For Israel, the stakes are high. The chaos could spill into neighboring Lebanon and Iraq, and no amount of military might can fully insulate Israel from the ripple effects of a fractured Syria.
Amid this madness, we should remember something ironic. Originially, the opposition to Assad was liberal rebels who wanted a democratic Syria—the Free Syrian Army. What ultimately sealed Assad's fate was his calculated decision in 2011 to release Islamist prisoners from his jails. His hope was to discredit the opposition by making it unpalatable to the West; he figured he could ride the tiger. That tiger has now devoured him.
Global fear and loathing of Islamism is preventing a genuine wave of celebration over the demise of a butcher. Many governments right now are wondering about the intentions of Hayat Tahrin al-Sham, despite the fact they have distanced themselves from al-Qaeda in recent years. That's why Israel has attacked Syrian chemical weapons depots—fearing they may fall into Islamist hands—and seized a strategic section of the Hermon mountaintop.
The United States is headed into an isolationist frame of mind. President-elect Donald Trump has argued that this is "not our fight." Think again: Few things today are more important than preventing Syria from becoming a terrorist haven for global jihad.
The fall of Assad's regime is a monumental moment, not just for Syria but for the entire Middle East. It underscores the impermanence of even the most entrenched autocracies. Assad's Baathist dictatorship, seemingly unassailable for decades, has crumbled. Many in the region are asking: could the Islamic theocracy in Iran, reviled by its people and a cancer upon the world, be next?
Dan Perry is the former Cairo-based Middle East editor and London-based Europe/Africa editor of the Associated Press, the former chairman of the Foreign Press Association in Jerusalem and the author of two books. Follow him at danperry.substack.com.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
