Taiwan's Clear Snub of China Spotlights Global War Risk

It wasn't only by branding Taiwan's presidential election winner an enemy of peace that China had sought to sway the island's people to reject Washington's close friend.

It had levied trade curbs, menaced with military exercises, conducted online influence operations and spread disinformation. It had sought to sway local officials with perks and paid visits. None of that stopped Lai Ching-te from winning the presidency on Saturday. China's favorite conceded defeat.

That leaves bruised egos in China and particularly for President Xi Jinping, who has put eventual unification with what Beijing considers a breakaway province at the center of his policy. A rapid military buildup is geared to achieve that by force if need be, though there is no greater indication China is keen to take that option imminently.

Lai has made clear he will not cross China's red line by declaring independence, but the result does nothing to ease global tensions that are at their highest in years, with the U.S. supporting the defense of Ukraine against Russia on one front and Israel's conflict with Iranian proxies on another.

"Beijing invested great efforts in trying to defeat Lai, so the result will come as a great disappointment to it," said Mike Chinoy, consulting editor of the Taiwan Strait Risk Report. "While Lai is likely to be prudent in his approach to China, the question now is the extent to which Chinese leaders may react militarily to their setback and how both Taiwan and the U.S. will respond," he told Newsweek.

After winning, Lai immediately pledged an openness to dialogue, which China has spurned under current Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) President Tsai ing-wen, whom Lai serves as vice-president.

But at the same time, he emphasized the importance of "dignity and parity" between the two sides — parity that China will almost certainly not accept, though it has never ruled the island since the Communist Party takeover of the mainland in 1949.

"Global peace and stability depend upon the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait," Lai underlined.

"Destroyer of Peace"

In response to a request for comment, the Chinese embassy in Washington referred Newsweek to a statement by China's Foreign Ministry.

"The Taiwan question is China's internal affair. Whatever changes take place in Taiwan, the basic fact that there is only one China in the world and Taiwan is part of China will not change," it read.

Beijing had called the election a question of "peace and war" and branded Lai a "destroyer of peace." It had also repeatedly accused the U.S. of interference in cross-strait affairs, of encouraging "doomed" Taiwan independence, and of threatening regional security. Washington has likewise accused Beijing of interference in Taiwan's elections and of threatening regional security.

The U.S. State Department congratulated Lai on his victory and Taiwan's people for their robust democracy.

"In the last eight years under the Tsai administration, Taiwan and the U.S. have grown markedly closer, and the Harvard-educated Lai is known to be very pro-American and chose Taiwan's former representative to the U.S. Hsiao Bi-khim as his running mate, in part to signal to both the Taiwanese public and to the American government the importance he places on relations with Washington," Taiwan politics analyst and International Community Radio Taipei contributing columnist Donovan Smith.

"By continuing the Tsai administration's cross-strait policies, the incoming Lai administration will almost certainly not do anything to alter the status quo, and any changes are likely to come from the Chinese side."

That said, none of the Taiwan election candidates differed much on the question of cross-strait relations. All opposed declaring independence, which China has threatened would mean war, but also opposed unification with China, which is widely rejected by Taiwanese. The most China-friendly candidate, Hou Yu-ih of main opposition party the Kuomintang (KMT), had said he would increase dialogue, particularly on economic issues.

China's distrust of Lai undoubtedly results partly from his past, when as mayor of the southern city of Tainan he had been more vocally pro-independence.

The United States, Taiwan's most important source of weapons and international support, maintains a long-standing policy of "strategic ambiguity" intended to leave open the question of whether it would commit troops to the island's defense.

But while the U.S. is ill-prepared to get involved in another war, there is little indication that the People's Republic of China (PRC) would be ready to risk an open conflict with its global nuclear rival.

Icy Relationship

"I think a lot of people will try to frame a Lai victory as a choice for increasing tensions or a choice for war, but I think that's really exaggerated," said Lev Nachman, political scientist and assistant professor at National Chengchi University in Taipei, Taiwan.

"Even though the PRC has made it very clear that they are never going to actually answer the phone if the DPP calls, at the very least they're able to come to an understanding that we can agree to a very icy but at the very least peaceful relationship."

While Taiwan's armed forces are overwhelmingly dwarfed by those of China, which by number of ships has a bigger navy than the U.S., its position as a mountainous island across the choppy, 100-mile Taiwan Strait means it would not be an easy target to assault.

It's population of over 23 million still gives it substantial potential for resistance, and it has upgraded fighter jets and other equipment from the United States. It might also be able to count on some form of help from other democratic neighbors, such as Japan, that would fear China gaining a strong foothold in the Pacific.

"Beijing sees anything that is not accepting its control of Taiwan as problematic and will paint people and entities taking those positions as dangerous. So whether there is some sort of crisis rests with Beijing, not Taipei," Chong Ja-Ian of the National University of Singapore told Newsweek.

"Right now, barring anything unexpected, Beijing will continue with pressure but is likely to refrain from escalatory behaviour that would lead to a loss of control over escalation. It has to fix its economy, after all."

Questions have been raised about China's military readiness amid those economic difficulties and after a series of corruption scandals and dismissals that appeared to be a setback for Xi's modernization program.

"I can't imagine him risking a war of choice that he'd most likely eventually lose," said Sean King, an Asia scholar and senior vice president of New York-based consultancy Park Strategies.

"Hence for now, expect more mainland Chinese fighter jets to cross the Taiwan Strait median line and even greater attempts to shut out Taiwan on the world stage at every turn…Beijing will now also do whatever it can to make Washington's life difficult, just as the U.S. moves into its hyper-election year," King told Newsweek.

Update 1/14/24, 7:10 a.m. ET: This article updated comments by Sean King.