US Allies, Wary of China Threat, Look to Taiwan To Keep the Peace

American allies in Asia are looking to Taiwan's presidential candidates for signs of continued peace and stability in the region as the island nation prepares to vote on Saturday.

Subject matter experts in Japan and the Phillippines, two countries the United States is treaty-bound to defend in an armed attack, told Newsweek that Taiwan's next president-elect would be expected to maintain the status quo.

Leaders in Taipei face the perennial question of whether to accommodate or stand up to the People's Republic of China, which claims the island as its own despite its lack of practical jurisdiction. The balance has been increasingly difficult to strike amid the great power rivalry between Beijing and Washington, the latter being Taiwan's strongest international backer.

Yoichiro Sato, dean of the College of Indo-Pacific Studies at Japan's Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University, said Japanese political sentiment generally is supportive of Taiwan's governing Democratic Progressive Party, but Tokyo expects the DPP not to make proactive moves toward Taiwan's formal independence, over which Chinese leaders have said they would go to war.

"Some pro-Taiwan conservatives are ideologically encouraging Taiwanese drive for independence. However, they are a small minority. More pragmatic conservatives are cautious about encouraging Taiwan too much and being entrapped into taking part in a war to defend Taiwan against a PRC invasion," Sato told Newsweek.

DPP presidential candidate Lai Ching-te, Taiwan's current vice president, said in a pre-election event this week that, if elected, he would continue President Tsai Ing-wen's moderate policies, including efforts to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.

In the lead-up to the concurrent presidential and legislative polls, and amid lingering concerns, Lai has repeatedly clarified his position on Taiwan independence. Borrowing from Tsai's approach, he insisted there was no need for the island to declare formal statehood.

His administration would also remain open to dialogue with Beijing, he said.

"Our door will always be open to engagement with Beijing based on the principles of equality and dignity," he said on Wednesday at the press conference in Taipei.

The opposition Kuomintang party, which has put forward New Taipei City Mayor Hou Yu-ih to lead its presidential ticket, has also reaffirmed the need to maintain the status quo—and to boost Taiwan's defense to deter Chinese military aggression.

On Thursday, Hou told a press briefing in the Taiwanese capital that he would not pursue unification talks with China in a bid to clarify his party's historical position on relations with the mainland.

Hou also distanced himself from recent remarks by Taiwan's former President Ma Ying-jeou, also of the KMT, who told Germany's DW News this week that Taiwan's people could accept unification with China under certain conditions and that fighting a war with the much stronger mainland was futile.

"You can never win. They are too large, too much stronger than us," Ma said.

"He and I are different," Hou said. "Cross-strait relations cannot rely on one side's goodwill."

Third-party candidate Ko Wen-je, chair of the Taiwan People's Party, also believes Taiwan has no choice but to maintain the status quo. Instead of focusing on relations with Beijing, he has sought to appeal to disaffected young voters by campaigning on social reforms.

Cross-strait tensions are likely to escalate no matter who comes to power, Andrew Nien-dzu Yang, Taiwan's former defense minister and now secretary general of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies think tank in Taipei, said.

"Regional countries hope that elections can reduce tensions and deescalate the situation, but it depends on whether Beijing or Taipei will make efforts to reassure regional partners. We don't know yet if that will happen," Yang told Newsweek.

There has been a growing focus on the potential responses of the U.S.'s regional allies to a Taiwan crisis.

"Japan is confident about U.S. intervention in a war between PRC and Taiwan, as long as the former starts an unprovoked war against the latter," said Sato. "Japan doesn't fully subscribe to some of the U.S.-sourced analysis, which predicted such unprovoked PRC invasion as early as 2025."

"However, Japan sees its expression of willingness to provide rear support to the U.S. forces to be contributing to both deterring China and cementing U.S. commitment to defending Taiwan," he said.

During a trilateral dialogue in Washington, D.C., last week, officials from the U.S., South Korea, and Japan "reaffirmed the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait as indispensable to security and prosperity in the international community," according to a readout.

The three allies were following up on last year's historic Camp David summit between U.S. President Joe Biden, President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea, and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio of Japan. It was the first time the three allies had together linked cross-strait peace to international security.

In a background call from the White House, a senior National Security Council official said on Thursday that the U.S.-Taiwan partnership would endure regardless of Saturday's election result.

The U.S. official confirmed a planned visit to Taipei by an unofficial delegation but did not disclose the personnel involved or their date of travel.

"It is no secret, I think, that Beijing has views on the outcome of the elections and is trying to shape and coerce in various different ways," the official said. "Beijing will be the provocateur should it choose to respond with additional military pressure or coercion."

Lucio Blanco Pitlo III, a lecturer in Chinese studies at Ateneo de Manila University, said the Philippines would be watching Taiwan's polls, too. In the past year, Manila has stepped up contingency planning for various scenarios related to Taiwan Strait tensions.

"As a close neighbor, the Philippines hopes that the elections in Taiwan will help ease cross-strait tensions. Manila hopes that regardless of who wins, both the new government in Taipei and the leadership in Beijing will work out an arrangement that contributes to regional stability." Pitlo told Newsweek.

Last year, the Phillippines granted the U.S. access to three additional sites on northern Luzon island, which can be used during a Taiwan contingency, especially for the evacuation of civilians or logistical support.

"However, the Philippines clarified that they would not be used as staging grounds to attack another country. How many U.S. troops will be stationed in these locations, and what arms or material will be prepositioned on them, bears watching," Pitlo said.