Ted Cruz Is Winning With Texas Millennials

Senator Ted Cruz is winning over Texas millennial voters in his bid to win reelection this November, according to a new poll.

Cruz is seen among the most vulnerable Republican incumbents on a Senate map generally viewed as favoring the GOP in the 2024 election. Democrats are hoping that suburban shifts away from Republicans will help propel them to victory in the state, long viewed as the GOP's most powerful that has grown more competitive in recent election cycles.

A new poll from the University of Houston shows that Cruz, who has said he believes his reelection bid is "going to be a firefight," is well positioned against potential Democratic opponents, Representative Collin Allred and state Senator Roland Gutierrez.

In a head-to-head matchup against Allred, Cruz prevails with 48 percent of the vote to Allred's 39 percent, while he defeats Gutierrez 48 percent to 38 percent, according to the survey.

Cruz's strength among millennials, generally seen as less conservative as older voters, helped fuel his lead.

Cruz won 41 percent of millennials in a hypothetical matchup between both Allred and Gutierrez. Allred secured the support or 33 percent of millennials, while 35 percent said they would support Gutierrez.

The poll also found that Allred remains the favorite to win the Democratic primary, scheduled for March 5. Forty percent of respondents said they planned to back Allred, while 12 percent said they would vote for Gutierrez. The remainder said they are either voting for other candidates or remain unsure who they will support.

The poll surveyed 1,500 Texans between January 11 and 24. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

Newsweek reached out to the Allred, Cruz and Gutierrez campaigns for comment via email.

Cruz faced a notably close reelection in 2018, when he beat back a challenge from Democratic Representative Beto O'Rourke by fewer than 3 percentage points, winning by roughly 215,000 votes. In that election, Cruz won 50.9 percent of the vote, while O'Rourke secured support from 48.3 percent of voters.

In 2024, Cruz is seen as less vulnerable than several Democratic incumbents, but other polls suggest the race could become competitive. An Emerson College poll released in January, for instance, found him in a dead heat against his potential Democratic rivals.

The Cook Political Report, which tracks elections across the U.S., rates Texas' Senate race as "likely Republican," meaning it is "not considered competitive at this point" but has the "potential to become engaged."