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Entering the season, the likelihood of a rookie quarterback winning the NFL MVP seemed as impossible as the Houston Texans sniffing the playoffs after winning two games last season.
Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud's performance through nine games defies the odds on all counts.
History isn't on Stroud's side for winning the league MVP, but there is the smallest amount of precedence. Hall of Fame running back Jim Brown in 1957 is the only player in NFL history to win the MVP during his rookie season. And even the most veteran superstar also has to make the playoffs to win the award, with one exception. In 1973, O.J. Simpson became the first rusher to break the 2,000-yard plateau in a single season, as the Bills finished with a 9-5 record but did not qualify for the postseason.
Stroud's season has a shot at being special enough to win over voters. In addition to his eye-popping stats, if the season ended today, the Texans would be the final team in the field, while leaving mainstays like Cincinnati and the Buffalo Bills on the outside looking in.
Here's a closer look at the rookie's improbable shot at the league's top individual award.
Case for Stroud
The most impressive piece of Stroud's rookie campaign is that it doesn't look like a rookie campaign at all.
Stroud is second in the NFL in passing yards through Week 10 and seventh in touchdown passes (15). He's in the top 10 among quarterbacks in several stats, and his two interceptions are the fewest of any full-time starter this season.
He's led the Texans on game-winning drives during the last two minutes of regulation consecutive weeks and overcame a fourth-quarter interception against the Bengals in a hostile road environment.
Regarding other rookies, there's very little comparison. Per ESPN Stats and Info, Stroud's 2,626 passing yards through his first nine games are the third-best in NFL history. Justin Herbert in 2020 (2,699) and Andrew Luck in 2012 (2,631) lead the list.
His touchdown mark isn't quite at Herbert's 2020 pace yet, but his lack of interceptions has his team in a position the Chargers weren't through nine games: winning. While Herbert's squad had just two wins after nine games, the Texans have a strong chance to be a wild card team, or even a division winner.
Challenges for Stroud
Even with the success, Stroud still has an uphill battle to capture the MVP award.
According to Monday afternoon's odds on BetMGM Sportsbook, Stroud is seventh on the MVP list at +2000 ahead of Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott and San Francisco 49ers running back Brock Purdy at +3000. Reigning MVP and defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs Patrick Mahomes leads the list at +275, with Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts second at +300.
It's fair to wonder if even taking the Texans to the playoffs would be enough to usurp Mahomes, Hurts, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson and Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, especially if those teams ultimate finish ahead of the Texans.
What's Next for Stroud?
The Texans have three consecutive home games, starting with Week 11 against the 2-8 Arizona Cardinals. But a more critical contest comes in Week 12, as the Texans host the Jaguars. Sweeping the season-series against Jacksonville would give the Texans an inside track to winning the division.
About the writer
Nubyjas Wilborn is Newsweek reporter based in Auburn, Alabama. Wilborn joined Newsweek in 2023 after winning the 2022 National Sports ... Read more