Texas Is Headed for a Water Problem

National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center meteorologists have issued a months-long drought outlook that reveals concerning news for western Texas.

Texas suffered from severe drought throughout last summer, with the water levels in many lakes, reservoirs and rivers dropping as a result. Conditions improved during the fall months, and the current U.S. Drought Monitor—which was updated on Thursday—showed that most of the drought is in the western part of the state.

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The drought is expected to worsen this summer, though, according to a new outlook that forecasts drought through July. The forecast predicts that seven states, including Texas, are at risk for drought development.

"New Seasonal Outlook by @NOAA's @NWSCPC takes us through July. Drought is expected to develop in E. WA, the N. Rockies, much of CO, and parts of UT, NM, and TX," the National Integrated Drought Information System posted on X, formerly Twitter, with a map of the forecast. "Drought improves in most areas of the Plains and Midwest. Otherwise, drought persists."

NWS Climate Prediction Center meteorologist Brad Pugh told Newsweek that it's difficult to predict the severity of the drought, but that Texas could experience agricultural impact and increased wildfire risk, especially in the next six weeks.

Drought also is expected to develop in Washington, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico. Forecasters anticipate that drought could improve in some parts of south-central Texas.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor map, 27 percent of Texas is currently experiencing moderate drought conditions. Severe drought plagued roughly 10 percent of the state, with extreme drought plaguing 2 percent. There's no evidence of exceptional drought—the U.S. Drought Monitor's worst classification.

More than half the state was free from any drought, a vast improvement over the start of the water year in September, when only 3 percent of the state was free from drought. This time last year, 22 percent of the state was free from drought, but 4 percent of the state was struggling with exceptional drought.

Heavy rain recently battered Texas, although the storm was concentrated in the eastern half of the state. The rain caused excessive flooding that caused some caskets to float out of their graves in Kirbyville. The rainfall caused water levels at Belton Lake, one of the lakes impacted by Texas' drought last summer, to rise.

Currently, the worst drought in the United States is concentrated in New Mexico, where extreme and exceptional drought plague the southern part of the state. Extreme drought also is in a small part of northern Montana, along the Montana-Idaho border, and in central Iowa.