Think Tank Points to New Sign Putin Is Preparing for Second Mobilization

Russian President Vladimir Putin may be preparing to announce a second military draft this week, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced on Tuesday that Putin would be speaking in his hometown of Leningrad on Wednesday to mark the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union breaking Nazi lines during the World War II siege of the city.

Putin may use the occasion to bolster Russia's struggling war effort in Ukraine by announcing a new mobilization of troops, according to an ISW report that cites Russian pro-war military bloggers and intelligence from Ukraine and Western allies.

"Putin may announce a second mobilization wave to expand his army in the coming days—possibly as early as January 18," the ISW report states. "Putin is fond of using symbolic dates to address the Russian people."

"Some Russian pro-war milbloggers noted that he will seize this opportunity to either declare mobilization or war with Ukraine," it continues. "Ukrainian and Western intelligence also repeatedly warned of Putin's mobilization preparations scheduled for mid-January."

The ISW report also predicts that newly announced military reforms could result in Russia becoming a more "formidable" threat to its neighbors and to NATO.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday that the Russian military would be making "major changes" between 2023 and 2026, including "strengthening the key structural components."

ISW said that the reforms would "not happen in time to affect the war in Ukraine materially for many months" but could begin to make a difference in 2024.

"[The reforms] could change the correlation of forces going into 2024, and it could establish conditions for a much more formidable Russian military threat to its neighbors, including NATO, in the coming years," the think tank's report states.

"Ukraine likely continues to have a window of opportunity into and through the summer if the West provides it the support it needs," the report continues.

A new mobilization of troops could have an impact on the war far sooner. Putin previously announced a "partial mobilization" of 300,000 troops in September.

The declaration sparked national protests and prompted over 370,000 Russian citizens to flee the country within two weeks. Russia claimed that the mobilization had been completed in late October.

However, Putin never signed a decree to officially end the September mobilization and in November the ISW claimed Moscow was continuing to "covertly" draft troops.

Last week, State Duma Deputy Viktor Sobolev hinted that a new round of official mobilization could be coming soon by announcing that conscripts over age 30 would be "called up for training in order to learn a military specialty."

Russian forces have suffered a series of setbacks for months amid Ukrainian counterattacks in regions that Putin claimed to have annexed last year.

A rare victory saw Russian troops and mercenary forces capture Soledar last week, although there has been no similar victory in the nearby larger city of Bakhmut despite protracted fighting.

Some experts have suggested that Putin could be preparing to mobilize more troops as part of an effort to overwhelm Ukrainian forces with a major offensive in the spring.

"Russia clearly has been using mobilized forces to undertake offensives, as what we have seen along the Bakhmut-Soledar axis," Alexander Lanoszka, assistant professor of International Relations at the University of Waterloo, told Newsweek on Friday.

"It is possible that Russia is holding many mobilized forces in reserve for a new offensive in the spring," he added.

Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Ministry of Defense for comment.