TNF: Patrick Mahomes Is Facing an Unprecedentedly Easy Matchup (on Paper)

During his time on the NFL gridiron, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has proved capable of shining in virtually any challenging circumstance. Playing through pain? Check. Handling the snow without missing a beat? Check. Facing a big-time deficit in a must-win game? Check.

But what would happen if he stared down the barrel of an easier situation?

It seems like we'll find out on Thursday Night Football when the Chiefs host the division rival Denver Broncos. For the first time in 85 regular-season starts, Mahomes will be squaring off against the NFL's worst-ranked scoring defense.

That doesn't mean the game is automatically going to be a blowout, though.

Let's take a closer look.

Mahomes Will Face a Bad Broncos Defense

While it may feel like he burst onto the professional scene yesterday, Mahomes does have a strong body of NFL experience. This is his sixth season as the Chiefs' starter and his seventh in the league; he spent the majority of his rookie campaign sitting behind Alex Smith. Mahomes has 85 regular-season starts, plus 14 additional postseason appearances, and he's already assembled a resume that would make most rivals jealous.

But on October 12, he's going to do something for the first time in his professional career. As James Palmer of the NFL Network noted on X, formerly Twitter, the game against the Broncos will be the first time Mahomes has faced the league's worst scoring defense.

And the numbers do say that Denver's defense is pretty bad. Through five games of the 2023 campaign, Denver has allowed 181 points, an average of 36.2 points per contest. Their closest competitor is the Washington Commanders, who surrender 32.0 points per game (160 in total on the season).

When you look at yardage, things don't get much better. Denver has also allowed the most total yards (2,253) and yards per game (450.6). Their run defense sits in the cellar by both metrics (938 yards and 186.7 yards per game), but things are slightly better against the pass. The Broncos aren't good—the unit has allowed 1,315 total passing yards or 263 passing yards per game—but that's not the worst in the NFL.

That unfortunate distinction goes to the Chicago Bears (1,430 total passing yards) and the Chargers (299.8 passing yards allowed per game through four contests).

Mahomes Isn't Guaranteed Success, Though

Based on those numbers and Mahomes' reputation, you might think it's time to bet the house on Kansas City. Football, however, isn't played on paper. And while the defensive matchup may look like a golden opportunity for K.C.'s quarterback, there are some caveats.

It is worth remembering that the Broncos had an absolutely awful outing during Week 3, surrendering 70 points and 726 total yards to the Miami Dolphins. While that game obviously counts—everyone's stats would look better if you simply ignored poor performances—that outsized margin does skew things a bit.

Let's pretend, for example, that Denver was slightly better on the day and only surrendered 42 points. That relatively minor change would have the Broncos tied with the Giants as the third-worst scoring defense instead of sitting in the cellar.

Again, you simply can't exclude a bad performance for narrative purposes, but that does show how thin the margins can be when you're talking about season-sized numbers.

Beyond that, it's also worth noting that the Chiefs offense hasn't exactly been humming this season. The idea of Mahomes and company facing a porous defense seems like a one-sided matchup, but K.C. is only the league's seventh-most potent offense in terms of total points scored. If you'd prefer to look at total yards, the Chiefs are only slightly better, sitting at sixth overall (1,905 yards).

And, if you go by the eye test, the difference is clear. Without a reliable secondary pass-catcher behind tight end Travis Kelce, the reigning Super Bowl champs haven't quite hit their stride.

Is that still a tough matchup for Denver's defense? Of course, but it's certainly a bit less one-sided than it could be.

And, lastly, the Broncos and Chiefs have a knack for playing close games. The recent rivalry may be one-sided, with K.C. winning 15 straight matchups dating to 2015, but four of the last five encounters have been decided by less than a touchdown.

Could that trend be a coincidence? Of course, but, at the same time, there is something to be said for the cliché that form goes out the window during rivalry games.

Ultimately, the fact that Mahomes is facing the worst-ranked scoring defense for the first time in his career can be treated like any other piece of pregame information. It's an interesting tidbit and will inform how we view the contest—Can No. 15 take advantage of the opportunity? Or will Denver rise to the occasion?—but it's not a divine prophecy.

For better or worse, anything can happen between the white lines.