Tim Ryan's Final Debate Against J.D. Vance Is Chance He Desperately Needs

U.S. Senate candidate Tim Ryan will need to impress Ohio voters in a critical debate on Monday if the Democrat hopes to beat Republican J.D. Vance, who is being endorsed by former President Donald Trump, in next month's midterms.

With three weeks until the election, Ryan and Vance are set to return to the stage for their second and final debate at the Stambaugh Auditorium in Youngstown on Monday night, and polls are showing an incredibly tight race.

FiveThirtyEight shows Ryan, a 10-term congressman, with a 0.3-point lead, but he'll likely need a late bump from the final debate for Democrats to win, especially if the polls are as far off as they were for the 2020 presidential race.

That year, then-candidate Joe Biden had been projected to win Ohio by one point, according to a Siena College poll, but the state went to Trump by more than eight points. Analyzing the 2020 data suggests that Ryan would need a double-digit polling advantage to win next month.

Winning over Ohio's undecided voters will be pivotal for Ryan. If he is looking for a 10-point lead, he will need the votes of the 9 percent of Ohioans who said they remain undecided as of October 7, an Emerson College poll found. The poll also showed Vance with a one-point lead.

Although the race is considered red-leaning, and Ohio has become increasingly Republican in recent years, the survey released last week showed that Ryan's support grew five points September, compared to Vance's two-point boost.

The same poll found Biden with a 57 percent disapproval rating in Ohio, a finding that Ryan, who has said he doesn't believe Biden should run for reelection in 2024, has played into.

While Ryan has tried to distance himself from national Democrats, he has joined them in appealing to voters who have been motivated to cast their ballots this year after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

Last week, Ryan and Vance clashed over abortion, among other topics, during their first debate. They went head-to-head on issues of inflation, law enforcement and each candidate's loyalty to their own parties.

Ryan slammed Vance for being "called an ass-kisser by the former president" and for "run[ning] around with Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida who wants to ban books.

"You're running around with Lindsey Graham, who wants a national abortion ban," Ryan said. "You're running around with Marjorie Taylor Greene, who is the absolute loneliest politician in America."

Vance said of Ryan, "Every single time he gets an opportunity to stand up for Ohioans, he chooses to bend the knee to his own party."

Early voting in Ohio has begun. Monday's debate begins at 7 p.m. local time.

Newsweek reached out to the Ryan and Vance campaigns for comment.