It's Time for NATO to Give Ukraine Tanks, Long-Range Missiles: Estonia FM

Estonia's foreign minister has called on NATO allies to increase arms deliveries to Ukraine to enable a total victory for Kyiv.

Urmas Reinsalu told Newsweek in an interview on Wednesday that only NATO-made systems like main battle tanks and precision missiles can "make a strategic difference in the course of the war."

The foreign minister called on allies to give "tanks, to give air defense, and also to give—without political caveats—long-range missiles."

"We need to change the course of this war," Reinsalu said. "The only way in the current context we could manage to do that is to raise significantly—without any caveats—the range of all types of conventional weaponry."

The Long Arm of Ukraine

The provision of NATO-made long-range missiles is a particularly sensitive subject. The U.S., U.K., and Germany have all supplied multiple-launch rocket systems—for example the much-vaunted American HIMARS—to allow Ukraine to hit strategic targets far behind Russian lines.

But Washington has so far refused to send the longest-range HIMARS munition—the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS—for fear that subsequent Ukrainian strikes on targets within Russian borders would prompt escalation from Moscow.

Ukraine has struck several sensitive targets inside Russia since February using other means, the most recent being the reported long-range drone attacks on two Russian strategic bomber bases in Saratov and Ryazan, both more than 370 miles from Ukrainian-controlled territory.

Both bases have been central to Russia's bombing campaign against Ukrainian cities in recent months, used to launch strategic bombers carrying long-range cruise missiles.

Reinsalu said the hypothetical Ukrainian use of NATO-made long-range missiles would be a "reasonable" response to Moscow's infrastructure offensive, which seeks to collapse the Ukrainian energy grid and freeze the country—and economy—into submission.

"I'm not dictating any military solutions as to how these weapons are going to be used," Reinsalu said, when asked whether Ukrainian forces should be allowed to use NATO-supplied weapons to hit targets within Russian borders.

"But I think that if we're speaking about Ukrainian opportunities to defend their civic infrastructure and avoid Ukraine being in blackout situations, then surely the most reasonable, the most efficient way, would be to have the opportunity to get into these places from where missiles have been launched."

No Tanks

The debate over supplying main battle tanks is also rumbling on. NATO nations have so far failed to supply modern Western-made systems, such as the German-made Leopard 2, though some allies have sent hundreds of Soviet-made tanks to Ukraine.

German publication FAZ reported this week that U.S. officials have made clear to German counterparts that the White House would support Berlin sending Leopard 2s to Ukraine, but Chancellor Olaf Scholz is yet to act. Reinsalu suggested that NATO nations will likely shift towards providing heavy armor as the war wears on.

"We remember the spring, the early summer discussions where Western countries were hesitant to give Western artillery to Ukraine, as it could be interpreted as an escalatory step," Reinsalu recalled.

"But then it appeared that Ukrainians literally couldn't survive without this artillery because there were not enough Soviet-type munitions for their artillery. Then suddenly a decision was made that we will not let Ukraine down, and these weapons were delivered. Now there appears to be a similar situation with tanks."

Estonia has been at the forefront of NATO's response to Russia's invasion, and has contributed the most military aid of any alliance member in terms of GDP per capita. Estonia was also one of the first NATO nations to begin supplying Kyiv with weapons, delivering its initial batch of Javelin anti-tank systems less than a week before Russia's invasion began in February.

Reinsalu said he hopes NATO nations will follow suit and expand their military contributions for Ukraine, noting he had recently suggested a NATO "gentlemen's agreement to put military aid at around 1 percent of GDP. To date, only Estonia and Latvia have reached this threshold.

Frozen Ground, Frozen Talks

Ukrainian forces have proved they can seize back swathes of occupied territory. Russia's depleted and directionless armed forces are on the back foot, with the Kremlin hoping that winter mud and cold will slow Ukrainian operations enough for Moscow's forces to dig in and stabilize the front lines in the south and east of the country.

President Vladimir Putin and his top officials have shown little sign of abandoning their maximalist war goals. Ukraine, having survived the initial onslaught, now sees the conflict as an opportunity to seize back the territories in Donbas and Crimea lost to Russia in 2014, as well as securing NATO membership.

Peace talks are a long way off, regardless of insincere Kremlin appeals or interventions by leaders like President Emmanuel Macron, who this weekend urged Western nations to consider "security guarantees" to bring Russia back to the table.

"I think all neighboring countries of Russia need upgraded security," Reinsalu said when asked about Macron's most recent remarks. "Our vision of new European security architecture should be a vision of Russia which would not be an element to dictate its neighbors' ways of life or security options."

"To have dialogue with Putin's regime on security principles of Europe is, in my assessment, not the way to support Ukrainian victory...Putin and his accomplices—uniformed or not—should be held accountable for the atrocities of the war they have launched."

Reinsalu acknowledged that some diplomatic channels must always remain open, even in wartime. But, he added, "if we're speaking about giving top-level signals by communicating with Putin, I would indeed say that there is a threat of misinterpretation."

"I think that in the Kremlin and in Russia it would be interpreted as a certain weakness of the West. What is most important is that we keep unity among free world countries."

Rather than new talks, the "recipe for shortening this war" consists of continued support for Ukraine, degradation of Russia's military capabilities, and continued political, economic, and legal isolation of Moscow, Reinsalu said.

Key ingredients will be further sanctions—EU ambassadors are currently considering a ninth package of measures that may include steps to block Russian access to drones—and ongoing scrutiny of the G7's new price cap on Russian oil exports, set at $60 per barrel last week after long negotiations.

The cap is up for review every two months, and must be set at least 5 percent below the average market price for Russian oil and petroleum products.

"The next review is going to be in January," Reinsalu said. "The intent of the review is indeed to lower the price cap." The foreign minister said Estonia's eventual desired cap is $30 per barrel.

"Russia is committing genocide and this needs a proper response from Western countries," the minister said. "If we had done something—at least partially—before the 24th of February to support Ukraine, and if we would have done in the spring what we have in autumn, this would have made a significant difference."

"Losing time is not a solution. Prolonging the war, also with winter, is a Russian strategy to harm and weaken Ukraine."

President Volodymyr Zelensky is eyeing victory some time in 2023, per comments made on Wednesday. This, he and his top officials have repeatedly said, means full liberation of all Ukrainian territories occupied since 2014. Kyiv is bullish, though allies including U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley have hinted that Ukraine may struggle to achieve all its war goals.

Reinsalu said Kyiv full victory remains the priority. "A basic element of the European security architecture should be honoring a country's borders," he explained. This, he said, means "the full liberation of Ukraine."