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A cyclone in the Atlantic Ocean that is expected to become a subtropical or tropical storm on Friday is anticipated to dump a month's worth of rain on parts of the U.S. as it barrels up the East Coast through the weekend.
Meteorologists are tracking a low-pressure system—currently dubbed "Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen," which is parallel with Georgia and moving northwards—that is forecast to bring tropical storm-force winds to the Carolinas by 8 p.m. ET on Friday evening.
It is predicted to bring storm surges of up to five meters to coastal regions such as the Lower Chesapeake Bay and "life-threatening" surf and wind currents, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in the early hours of Friday morning. Tropical storm and storm surge warnings have been issued for affected areas.
When it does develop into a tropical storm-strength cyclone—meaning it carries winds of between 39 and 73 miles an hour—it will be named Ophelia, according to a pre-agreed alphabetical list, following the passing of Atlantic storms Lee, Margot and Nigel.
Various forecasts suggest three to six inches of rain could fall across eastern portions of the Carolinas through to Monday. This is roughly the same as the average rainfall across the entirety of September for Charleston, South Carolina, which sits in the storm's path.
As of 5 a.m. ET on Friday, the NHC predicts that the storm is expected to arrive over Virginia by 8 a.m. on Saturday, before reaching Maryland and Washington, D.C. by 8 p.m. that evening. It will then turn towards the Pennsylvania coastline and reach New York by Sunday evening.
In a forecast, the NHC said heavy rainfall from the storm "produce localized urban and small stream flooding impacts across the eastern mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey" through to Sunday.
The area at the greatest risk of flash flooding is predicted to be the South Carolina coastline, though deluges could occur as far north as Boston, Massachusetts, and near Albany, New York.
The National Hurricane Center said that the "notable strengthening" of the cyclone was due to a combination of instability in the atmosphere and "warm Gulf Stream waters" that have been produced by the occurrence of an El Niño-like pattern in the Atlantic.
El Niño generally refers to a warming of the ocean surface in the Pacific Ocean, which can affect weather patterns and cause more extreme weather events.
Warmer seawater evaporates easier, allowing a cyclone to draw in more moisture and grow in intensity. Meteorologists say that the potential tropical storm will likely weaken after making landfall.
The El Niño pattern has occurred more than 30 times since 1901, but studies have shown that marine heat waves have increased in frequency with climate change. Its "little brother" in the Atlantic was dormant until 2016 and has analogous impacts on the weather.
Newsweek approached the National Hurricane Center via email for further comment on Friday.
About the writer
Aleks Phillips is a Newsweek U.S. News Reporter based in London. His focus is on U.S. politics and the environment. ... Read more