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President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are poised to face the same voter turnout problem in November, experts warn.
The 2024 presidential election is up against a particularly "high benchmark" when it comes to driving voters to the polls. The 2018, 2020 and 2022 elections were three of the highest-turnout U.S. elections in decades. In the last presidential election, about two-thirds of the voting population—more than 158.4 million people—turned out, according to Pew Research.
"I expect turnout to be down from record highs, due to lower voter interest and enthusiasm. Indicators like online political activity and news interest are down," Matt Grossmann, the director of Michigan State's Institute for Public Policy and Social Research, told Newsweek. "The campaign will ramp up voter interest but 2020 is a high benchmark."
The general election is setting up the stage for a Biden and Trump rematch—a disenchanting idea for the vast majority of voters. Nearly 6-in-10 registered voters told Decision Desk HQ/NewsNation in a poll released Monday that they are "not too enthusiastic" or "not at all enthusiastic" about another Biden vs. Trump election. A Thursday survey from Reuters/Ipsos found that 18 percent of Americans would not vote in November's election if it's a choice between Biden or Trump.
"There clearly are forces in play that are likely to depress turnout—widespread misgivings about the two frontrunners, foremost among them," William Howell, the director of the University of Chicago's Center for Effective Government, told Newsweek.
While Biden's age is seen as an obstacle for his reelection campaign, Trump is facing a swath of legal challenges that include four criminal indictments.
Biden, the oldest U.S. president in history, will be 86 when he concludes a second term if he is reelected to the White House later this year. The White House has criticized the media for focusing on the president's age, but a CNN poll from September showed that 76 percent of Americans are worried that Biden's age could hurt his ability to serve another four years. A poll by The New York Times and Siena College published in November found that 71 percent of likely voters across six key battleground states believe Biden is "too old to be an effective president."
On the other hand, Trump became the first former president to be indicted last year. He is facing 91 felony charges across two federal cases, a Manhattan case and a case in Fulton County, Georgia. The NYT poll from November showed that while the indictments have not hurt him among voters in swing states, six percent of voters said that they would switch their votes to Biden if Trump were convicted and sentenced—a margin of votes that could be enough to decide the next president. Prosecutors in all four of Trump's criminal cases are hoping to go to trial before the November 5 election.
"This is going to be a fear and loathing election," political consultant Jay Townsend told Newsweek. "Two candidates with negatives that exceed their positives. Two candidates who will paint each other a fundamental threat to the Republic. Each candidate is tasked with 'winning it ugly' because circumstances dictate the same."
Townsend said while conventional wisdom would suggest that Biden vs. Trump 2.0 will depress turnout, nothing about American politics has followed that playbook since Trump's ascension to the White House in 2016.
Biden and Trump are not only trying to drive voter turnout amid their individual struggles, but also trying to get people to the polls when both candidates are facing some pushback from voters who would typically vote Democrat or Republican.
Biden is facing a progressive revolt in protest to his handling of the Israel-Hamas war, while supporters of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis are threatening to withhold their vote for Trump.
Dubbing the president "Genocide Joe," young voters, who were credited with helping Biden win in 2020, have vowed to sit out the election over their disapproval of his pro-Israel stance. A New York Times poll from last month also showed that the outrage has benefitted Trump, who had a 6-point advantage among voters under 30, despite having trailed Biden by 10 points in July.
At the same time, Trump is facing criticism from DeSantis backers who have expressed unwillingness to get behind the former president even after the governor dropped out of the race over the weekend. They slammed Trump and his supporters for attacking the pro-DeSantis camp during the primaries.
"Oh, so now, we aren't traitors, RINOs or Democrats anymore," Maria Peiro, a former Republican House candidate and DeSantis support, told Trump-aligned political consultant Alex Bruessewitz on X, formerly Twitter. "Good luck losing in November."
But Grossmann said both those factors could fall to the wayside by November, noting that it's still early and that a close election could boost turnout. Howell agreed, noting that the "competitiveness of the race and the very real stakes involved" could help both parties drive turnout, noting that the latter is something that Biden's re-election campaign could use to energize voters.
"While Democrats are not especially enthusiastic about Biden, their feelings about Trump are decidedly strong. For them, the specter of another Trump presidency may be enough to convince them to vote on Election Day," Howell said.
There are other signs that suggest voter turnout could still be high. A November youth poll from the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement found that 57 percent of those aged 18 to 34 are "extremely likely" to vote in 2024, with 51 percent likely to back the Democratic candidate. And this week, Trump drove a record turnout in New Hampshire, where he easily defeated former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley in the state's Republican primary. The results of the 2022 midterms also suggest that state ballot measures could drive voter turnout, replacing the influence presidential candidates typically have.
"While turnout may not reach the historical heights we've seen recently, I still expect it to be high," Howell said.
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About the writer
Katherine Fung is a Newsweek senior reporter based in New York City. She has covered U.S. politics and culture extensively. ... Read more