Trump Conviction Would Be Harmful With These Voters, GOP Strategist Warns

Former President Donald Trump's escalating legal woes could make it "exceedingly difficult" to regain the presidency if they end in a criminal conviction, according to Republican strategist Scott Jennings.

U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon announced on Friday that Trump's federal felony trial on charges stemming from Special Counsel Jack Smith's classified documents investigation would start in May, six months before the 2024 presidential election. Trump is also facing felony charges in New York state and could soon be facing federal charges related to Smith's January 6 investigation.

Trump, who denies all wrongdoing and claims to be a victim of a political "witch hunt," would likely not be legally prohibited from continuing his campaign if convicted. He remains far and away the leading candidate for the Republican nomination, with a loyal base of supporters who seem eager to support his candidacy even if he is behind bars on Election Day.

However, Jennings said during a CNN appearance on Friday, a conviction could cost the ex-president the crucial independent vote and effectively doom him to defeat in the general election. Jennings suggested that Republicans should have a backup plan— and consider supporting a different candidate—if Trump becomes a convicted felon.

"In the pantheon of attributes, you could have in a nominee for a major political party, being a felon—convicted felon—is not one I would recommend," Jennings told CNN's Jake Tapper. "If this were to somehow go to trial in May and be concluded by the time the convention rolls around, I suspect somebody would go to the convention and say, 'What are we doing here?'"

"Who it would make a difference for are independent swing voters, who are not strong Republicans but have voted Republican," he continued. "This ain't bringing them home. And if you want to beat [President] Joe Biden next year—an incumbent president, even if he is in a weakened position—this would make it exceedingly difficult, I'd think."

Jennings went on to say that while Trump's legal difficulties may be "helping him with Republicans," they are definitely "not helping him with independent swing voters who will decide the next presidential election."

Newsweek reached out for comment to Trump's office via email on Friday.

While Trump continues to enjoy a large polling lead over the runner-up in the race for the GOP nomination, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, his chances of beating Biden in a possible 2020 rematch have recently looked far less favorable.

A poll released by the firm of Trump's own pollster on Friday indicated that DeSantis would pose a larger threat to Biden in the general election. The Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research poll, which surveyed 40 crucial "swing" districts, found that Biden led Trump by 47 percent to 43 percent, while the president and DeSantis were tied at 45 percent.