Trump Endorsement Likely Won't Help Zeldin Despite Gaining Ground on Hochul

Polls show Republican Lee Zeldin making up ground against Democratic New York Governor Kathy Hochul, but one pollster said former President Donald Trump's endorsement won't change the trajectory of the race.

The GOP representative from New York's First Congressional District is down 11 points to Hochul, 52 percent to 41 percent, according to a new Siena College poll of likely New York state voters.

Zeldin, who is attempting to become the state's first Republican to win the governor's seat in two decades, was down 17 points three weeks ago.

The newest poll was conducted between October 12 and 14 and surveyed 707 voters by phone. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.

"[Zeldin] is a great and brilliant lawyer who was a 'must see' for others in Congress when they had a complex legal problem that was holding up legislation," Trump wrote Sunday on Truth Social. "Lee was strong on the Border, Crime, our great Military & Vets (like few others!), and fought hard to protect our 2nd Amendment, and succeeded. Lee Zeldin is a WINNER who GOT THINGS DONE."

Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg told Newsweek that the bright spot in Zeldin's poll advances is his solidification of Republican support, up four points since last month to 81 percent statewide.

However, Trump's Republican support statewide is 77 percent, lower than Zeldin's. That is why Greenberg doesn't see the endorsement helping "in any way."

"Donald Trump has never been popular in his home state of New York—not since before he was president, while he was president or after he was president," Greenberg said. "Sixty-one percent view him unfavorably....I'm not sure how Trump necessarily helps [Zeldin] with Republicans. It certainly won't help Zeldin with trying to increase Democratic support."

New York is also still a liberal-heavy state, Greenberg said, pointing to how George Pataki was the last GOP gubernatorial candidate to win in 1994 against three-term incumbent Democrat Mario Cuomo. No presidential candidate has carried New York since Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Whereas Democrats used to hold about a 5-to-3 voter advantage, that ratio has increased to well over 2-to-1, he added. GOP voter enrollment is 22 percent statewide.

"New York has long been blue but it's getting bluer....In fact, 23 percent of the enrolled voters are independent," Greenberg said. "There are more independent voters than there are Republicans. So, Republicans start with a huge statewide climb. In order to win, they obviously have to win the overwhelming share of Republicans."

While Zeldin holds a nine-point lead against Hochul among independents, 49 percent to 40 percent, Greenberg said the only way he can pull off the upset is if Zeldin cuts into Hochul's grasp on Democratic voters.

"A Republican cannot win statewide if they are not getting 50 percent of independents and 10 percent of Democrats," Greenberg said. "It's just virtually, mathematically impossible.

"Three weeks is a long time in politics....There's still a long way to go to be able to be in contention to win the race. He's got a monumental task in front of him."

Hochul, who took over for embattled former Governor Andrew Cuomo, was not elected but enjoys the "perks" of an incumbent, Greenberg said. She also has a large war chest and "seems to be in a strong position."

The Hochul campaign blasted Trump's endorsement of Zeldin, linking Zeldin's text messages to former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows to overturn the 2020 presidential election. That was revealed by the January 6 Committee, the formation of which Zeldin voted against.

"Lee Zeldin's aspirations to be Donald Trump's number one ally are never ending," Hochul campaign spokesman Jerrel Harvey said. "Zeldin's text messages with Trump White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows reveal that he played a central role in the former president's concerted effort to throw out the 2020 presidential election results.

"Zeldin's record is already dangerous and disqualifying, and these new revelations show the extent of his involvement in pushing Donald Trump's baseless conspiracy theories."

Other major New York races in Siena's polling show Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer leading Republican Joe Pinion 57 percent to 37 percent; Democratic Attorney General Letitia James ahead of Republican Michael Henry 51 percent to 40 percent; and Democratic State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli with a big lead over Republican Paul Rodriguez, 54 percent to 30 percent.

Newsweek reached out to the Hochul and Zeldin campaigns for comment.