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Donald Trump's presidential election victory in 2016 was not predicted by many pollsters.
Ahead of 2024's election, Trump has been polling better than his Republican primary rivals, and pollsters are divided on whether or not he would defeat President Joe Biden.
What about bookmakers? Betting on political outcomes is generally outlawed in the United States, but international bookies are often eager to offer odds.
Former Trump staffer turned outspoken Trump critic Miles Taylor this week said that odds of his former boss reaching the White House again had improved threefold compared to 2016.
The Claim
In an interview with CNN on July 23, 2023, Taylor, former chief of staff of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, claimed that betting markets had Trump at a 30 percent chance of winning the presidency in 2023, compared to nine percent in 2016.
"I want to say that I do think that Donald Trump is stronger than he was politically in 2016," Taylor said.
"I mean, the odds markets had him at 9 percent of winning the presidency in 2016. Right now, the betting markets have him at something like 30 percent or above."
The Facts
It is true that some bookmakers currently have Trump's chance of winning the 2024 election at about 30 percent.
According to betting comparison site oddschecker, multiple sites have given Trump odds of 9/4, 15/8, and 23/10 which produces a probability of winning between 30-36 percent.
Biden has not drawn that far ahead of Trump either but has shorter odds in some shops with 6/4 and 7/4 slips available. Overall the difference between the pair is quite slim, with Trump offered longer odds but at not a great pace behind the current president.
So, how does that compare to the odds Trump enjoyed in 2016?
According to some bookmakers, Trump was coming in lower than nine percent ahead of the 2016 election. ESPN in August 2016, reported odds at 12/1, giving him about an 8 percent chance of winning. Only weeks before, it reported, he had received odds of 100/1.
The results were not uniform though. Maxim Lott, the creator of electionbettingodds.com, consistently recorded Trump at above nine percent from early 2016 onward, based on live odds from FTX.com, Betfair.com, PredictIt.org, Smarkets.com, and Polymarket.com, peaking at 35.6 percent in September of that year.
Although a different metric, pollsters also were putting Trump above nine percent. Analysts FiveThirtyEight made a prediction in the range of 29 percent in the final days of the 2016 contest.
In truth, the claim that Trump had nine percent odds of making it to the White House is accurate although there appears to be a wide range of other data that supported a higher probability.
Comparing the two contests also comes with caveats. Trump was arguably more of an outsider candidate in 2016, even after the Republican primary, with pollsters and bookies far and away predicting that Hillary Clinton would become president.
These were also ahead of Trump's transformation of the Republican party, the strength by which MAGA ideology grew after he became president, not to mention how he has framed himself as a victim of political persecution since January 6, his indictments, and in his ongoing inaccurate claim that he won the 2020 election.
Arguably too, Trump's success in the polls right now may be a result of floundering campaigns by his rivals, particularly Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis who has seen a slump in his chances over recent weeks.
In any case, while Trump did by some measures only pick up somewhere about nine percent according to some betting models, it was by no means the consensus opinion, and suggesting that his most recent odds are a sign of a remarkable change is debatable.
The Ruling
Needs Context.
In 2016, Trump did return odds by some models of only having a nine percent chance of reaching the White House.
However, other models from that year showed Trump consistently returning odds of more than nine percent, and even on one occasion above 30 percent.
Some political pollsters also put Trump at about a 30 percent chance of winning before the result was called.
The former president's advantage now may both be a product of the name and reputation he has built for himself within the Republican party since 2016 and the lead he has made over even his strongest 2024 primary rivals.
FACT CHECK BY Newsweek's Fact Check team
About the writer
Tom Norton is Newsweek's Fact Check reporter, based in London. His focus is reporting on misinformation and misleading information in ... Read more