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Donald Trump is still the overwhelming favorite to clinch the Republican 2024 presidential nomination, despite several issues that threatened to derail his chances.
The former president's chances of winning the GOP primary have improved in the wake of his arrest and sexual-battery civil trial loss, according to a number of polls. Trump is increasing his lead over his rumored biggest challenger, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
A Morning Consult poll of 3,574 potential Republican primary voters showed Trump leading DeSantis in a hypothetical GOP primary race by 60 percent to 19, with no other Republican hitting double digits. The survey was conducted between May 5 and 7 and published on May 9. It came before a New York jury ruled that Trump sexually abused former Elle columnist E. Jean Carroll then defamed her while denying the allegations.
DeSantis is yet to confirm he is running for president but is expected to do so soon. He was widely seen as the ideal replacement for Trump after the former president was blamed for the GOP's poor midterm performance. However, DeSantis downplayed his struggling poll numbers during a recent trip to Japan. "I'm not a candidate, so we'll see if and when that changes," he said.
Trump's 41-point lead of DeSantis is the largest Trump has enjoyed since business intelligence company Morning Consult began tracking the GOP primary race in December 2022.
The poll results is a continuing trend that has seen Trump's poll numbers improve over DeSantis over the past few months. The former president stands at 52.1 percent as of May 11, with DeSantis behind in second at 22.5 percent—a 29.6-point lead, according to FiveThirtyEight's national GOP primary polls average.
Trump's average lead over DeSantis has continued to increase since he became the first former president in history to be charged with a crime. On April 4, Trump pleaded not guilty to 34 counts of falsifying business records after Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's hush-money probe. This was in relation to the $130,000 Trump arranged to be paid to adult film star Stormy Daniels to keep an alleged affair the pair had a secret ahead of the 2016 election.
Rather than hinder Trump's changes, the former president's legal issues have resulted in increased support from Republican voters.
As of April 11, one week after he was indicted in New York, Trump's national average was slightly below the average of May 11 at 49.3 percent, but his overall lead over DeSantis was also down to 23.1.
Even before Trump was arrested in New York, his poll numbers were improving over DeSantis amid talk of his upcoming indictment.
On April 3, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 48 percent of Republican voters said they want Trump to be their party's presidential nominee in 2024. This was up four points from the 44 percent he received in a poll conducted between March 14 and 20.
In comparison, DeSantis' support fell from 30 percent in March down to 19 percent in the April poll. This meant that Trump's lead over the Florida governor increased from 14 points to 29 after his historic grand-jury indictment was announced.
Elsewhere, 59 percent of GOP voters in the Sunshine State would back Trump in a 2024 primary, while 31 percent supported DeSantis. This was according to a Florida Atlantic University (FAU)/Mainstreet Research poll conducted between April 13 and 14.
"Former President Trump continues to be a strong candidate for the Republican nomination, and his support appears durable and consistent," said Kevin Wagner, professor of political science at FAU.
About the writer
Ewan Palmer is a Newsweek News Reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is reporting on US politics, and Florida ... Read more