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Former President Donald Trump could cost the Republican Party control of Congress if he announces a presidential bid before the midterm elections in November, GOP pollster Frank Luntz said.
Shortly after losing the 2020 presidential election, Trump began teasing the possibility of a 2024 bid—potentially setting up a rematch with President Joe Biden, with some political experts saying he could launch his campaign in the months leading up to the midterms, when Republicans are favored to win a majority in the House of Representatives.
But Trump announcing a run before November could spoil Republicans' hopes of winning majorities in Congress, as he remains unpopular with the swing voters who tilted the 2020 election in favor of Biden, said Luntz during an appearance on MSNBC's Morning Joe.
Luntz warned that if the midterm elections are about Trump—rather than about topics such as the economy, which has become a sore spot for the Biden administration—Republicans in swing seats might suffer.
"If he does announce, he could actually cost the Republicans the House as well as the Senate," he said. "If the election is about the economy, Republicans win both. If the election is about Donald Trump, Republicans lose both."
Though Biden remains unpopular, Trump has struggled to gain approval outside of his base of supporters.
Recent polls showed his support floundering amid public hearings held by the House select committee investigating the January 6, 2021 attack—when a mob of his supporters, amid his claims of voter fraud, rioted at the U.S. Capitol.
Luntz's warning comes as Republicans are favored to win a majority in the House. According to FiveThirtyEight, 44.2 percent of Americans plan to vote for Republicans, while 43.1 percent plan to vote for Democrats in Congressional races.
That means Republicans are likely to pick up enough seats to take control of the House.
Still, the gap between the two parties has narrowed in recent weeks as the U.S. Supreme Court's move to overturn Roe v. Wade, the decision that guaranteed abortion rights across the country, motivated Democratic voters and alienated some moderates from the Republican Party.
Even as Republicans are likely to flip the House, the Senate, however, could be held by either. Races in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are considered toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, which tracks elections across the country.
Trump has teased the possibility of another presidential run several times, and polls show he could be be reelected.
Trump would be favored to win the GOP primary, as he holds significant leads in nearly every poll. His most competitive challenger could be Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who still often trails Trump by double digits.
But the general election would be considered a toss-up, as neither Trump nor Biden have dominated polls of a potential 2024 rematch. An Emerson College poll released this month showed Trump leading by 3 percentage points, but an Echelon Insights poll released days earlier showed Biden leading by the same margin.
Trump, however, suggested in remarks during a rally in Arizona on Friday that he might wait until after the midterms to announce a run.
"But first, we have to win a historic victory for the Republican Party this November when we retake Congress," he said. "Among our highest priorities must be to end the nightmare Joe Biden has created on our southern border."
Newsweek reached out to Trump's office for comment.
About the writer
Andrew Stanton is a Newsweek weekend reporter based in Maine. His role is reporting on U.S. politics and social issues. ... Read more