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President Donald Trump retained roughly 42 percent of voters' support during the week that followed this year's first presidential debate, national polling data shows.
While Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden's lead over his Republican competitor is more significant than Hillary Clinton's was after the first 2016 debate, polls conducted at this time four years ago reflected less voter support for Trump than they do in 2020. Comparisons between FiveThirtyEight's current election polling averages and those published during the last election cycle show the president is currently polling 2 percent higher than he was during the week following his first debate against Clinton.
Biden has seen public support for his campaign grow steadily over the past several months, and national polls conducted since last Wednesday's debate suggest the former vice president's lead over Trump is widening in the weeks leading up to November's general election. The latest figures included in FiveThirtyEight's national polling tracker place Biden 9.8 percentage points ahead of Trump, earning an average of 51.9 percent of voters' support compared to Trump's 42.1 percent.
Those figures were similar to results of several other polls conducted after the debate, some of which reflected double-digit leads favoring Biden over Trump. An Economist/YouGov poll that collected responses from more than 1,300 likely voters between October 4 and October 6 placed Biden nine points ahead of his GOP competitor, while a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted around the same time suggested the Democratic candidate's lead was three points higher.
Clinton, who campaigned against Trump as the Democratic presidential nominee in 2016, also polled higher than her Republican counterpart ahead of Election Day that year. Although Clinton won the popular vote, Trump was ultimately elected after securing majority support in the Electoral College. In light of Clinton's standing in national polls ahead of the 2016 election, some have voiced concerns about whether presidential polls conducted in 2020 can reliably predict next month's outcome.
Data trends from the last election season suggest there is still time for Trump to narrow the gap between himself and Biden before November 3. However, the current Democratic nominee's advantage over Trump is greater than Clinton's was at any time during the 2016 race, as well as more consistent.
FiveThirtyEight's national polling average indicated support for Clinton's 2016 presidential campaign grew significantly following that year's initial debate. The site's election forecast tracker showed Clinton slightly ahead of Trump when the first presidential debate took place. It would go on to suggest the Democratic nominee's edge rose to 5 or 6 percentage points over the course of October, before survey results eventually showed Trump narrowing the favorability gap slightly just before Election Day.
In 2016, FiveThirtyEight's averages indicated Trump's national voter support fell 1 percentage point. It originally stood at 41 percent, compared to Clinton's 42.4 percent, when the first debate took place on September 26. As Trump's averages dropped to just above 40 percent during the seven days that followed, Clinton's rose to 44 percent.
