🎙️ Voice is AI-generated. Inconsistencies may occur.
Former President Donald Trump is heading to Pennsylvania to campaign for Senate candidate Mehmet Oz and gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano as polls show the Republicans gaining ground on their Democratic opponents.
Trump shared a Save America PAC release about his upcoming visit to Latrobe in a Truth Social post on Wednesday. The former president will hold a rally near the Pittsburgh area "in support of his unprecedented effort to advance the MAGA agenda by energizing voters and highlighting" his endorsed candidates just days before the midterm election on the evening of Saturday, November 5, according to the release.
"As Biden's approval rating plummets, Pennsylvania crime spikes, and Pennsylvanians grapple with a 74% hike in heating oil, coupled with record inflation, just weeks away from winter," the release states. "The America First Movement offers the Keystone State an alternative vision for America: safe streets, cheap gas, low inflation, and a thriving American economy."
Trump's announcement comes one day after Oz participated in a debate with Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, his Democratic opponent.
Conservative commentators largely suggested that Fetterman's debate performance showed he was unfit for office due to the effects of a stroke that he suffered in May, while progressives heavily criticized Oz for saying that "local political leaders" should have a say in abortion rights.
While scientific polling has not yet indicated what impact the debate could have on the election, polls have recently shown Oz closing in on Fetterman as Election Day approaches.
The Democratic candidate had enjoyed a double-digit lead in some polls taken over the summer but held a razor-thin average lead of only 1.3 points as of Wednesday, according to RealClearPolitics.
However, the polling data aggregator predicts that Oz will ultimately win the race, based on a projection that assumes polls underestimate support for Republican candidates, as has been the case in some previous elections.
Polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight projects that Fetterman is "slightly favored" to defeat Oz, giving the lieutenant governor a 60 to 40 percent advantage over the celebrity doctor.
Gubernatorial candidate Mastriano, a state senator, and Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro, his Democratic opponent, will not be taking part in a debate after failing to agree to terms.
Although polls suggest that Mastriano is significantly less likely to win his election than Oz, there have been some indications that the race may also be narrowing in favor of the Republican.
A survey released by Rasmussen Reports on Monday showed Shapiro leading Mastriano by 43 to 40 percent, just within the poll's 3 percent margin of error.
A RealClearPolitics average of polls further suggests that the Republican faces an uphill battle, with Shapiro leading by 6.4 percent as of Wednesday. The site also projects that Mastriano will lose the contest.
FiveThirtyEight is more confident of a Democratic win in the gubernatorial election—Shapiro is "clearly favored" to win with a 94 percent chance of victory as of Wednesday, while Mastriano has a 6 percent chance.
The potential impact of Trump's last-minute campaign on either race remains unclear.
While the former president's visit is likely to energize his base and could help Republican turnout, it also runs the risk of making the candidates less appealing to moderates and undecided voters.
Dan Mallinson, assistant professor of public policy and administration at Penn State University at Harrisburg, told Newsweek that it would be "harder and harder to move the needle" as Election Day approaches, but that "turnout will matter a lot for who takes the close Senate race.
"For the Shapiro/Mastriano race, Mastriano is already well liked among Trump supporters," said Mallinson. "Trump's visit can help get them motivated to go to the polls, which might help things narrow, but Mastriano is pretty far behind Shapiro... But turnout is key, so perhaps it can help him narrow things a bit.
"As for Oz/Fetterman, Trump's visit could be more of a boost with his base for Oz," he continued. "But, there is talk lately of more moderate Republicans and independents splitting their vote and going for Shapiro and Oz. I have to wonder if Trump showing up and visibly backing Oz would give them pause."
Newsweek reached out to Trump's office for comment.
Update 10/26/22, 9:31 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information and background.
About the writer
Aila Slisco is a Newsweek night reporter based in New York. Her focus is on reporting national politics, where she ... Read more