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Donald Trump is hoping to celebrate his 76th birthday on Tuesday with a pair of victories for his endorsed candidates in South Carolina's GOP primaries.
On June 14, two candidates backed by the former president—state Representative Russell Fry and former state Representative Katie Arrington—are hoping to achieve the difficult task of unseating incumbents Tom Rice and Nancy Mace from their congressional seats by beating them in their respective primaries.
During a recent "telerally" for his chosen candidates in South Carolina, Trump urged voters to give him "two birthday presents" on Tuesday and back Fry and Arrington to get what he believes are GOP members of Congress who are unloyal to his cause out of office.
Rice, who previously supported Trump, met the ire of the former president after he voted to impeach him for allegedly inciting the attack on the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021.
While Mace was not one of the 10 House Republicans who voted against Trump during his second impeachment, she still met Trump's wrath by criticizing his response to the attack, telling CNN how his "entire legacy was wiped out" on January 6.
Tuesday's primary will once again be a test of how much Trump's influence will have on primaries given his chosen candidates are up against incumbents, who hardly ever lose midterm elections, never mind their party primary.
The midterms arrive after a number of Trump's endorsed candidates lost their respective elections, including a crushing defeat for David Perdue in the Georgia gubernatorial primary and North Carolina freshman Madison Cawthorn losing a rare primary as an incumbent despite Trump publicly supporting the 26-year-old following a number of scandals and controversies.
Mick Mulvaney, Trump's former acting chief of staff who is supporting Mace, told NBC News that he does not believe voters will side with the former president and unseat either incumbent on Tuesday.
"Politics is still, at the end of the day, local," Mulvaney said. "And if people like their incumbent representative, whether it's a governor or a senator or House member, they're still more likely than not to keep them."
The polls suggest that Mace is the favorite to win her primary, although Rice faces a greater challenge.
A recent Basswood Research for Winning for Women Action Fund survey found that Mace holds a 20-point lead over Arrington (44 percent to 24 percent), with 28 percent still undecided. Another poll conducted by the Trafalgar Group in late May also placed Mace as the favorite, leading Arrington 46 percent to 40 percent, with 13 percent still undecided.
The results are more difficult to predict for Rice's primary, who is running against Fry and several others in a crowded field.
A Washington Examiner poll released June 3 showed Rice had a significant lead over Fry, 38 percent to 21 percent. However, a Trafalgar Group survey conducted in late May placed Fry as the leading candidate, beating Rice 42 percent to 25 percent.
If the polls projections are correct, even if Rice and Mace win they may not achieve the necessary 50 percent threshold to win outright, meaning both candidates may advance into a runoff against the Trump-endorsed candidates.
About the writer
Ewan Palmer is a Newsweek News Reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is reporting on US politics, and Florida ... Read more