The Trump Supporters That Could Give Biden the Election

Donald Trump's independent supporters may hand the 2024 presidential election to Joe Biden, according to several recent polls.

Former President Trump remains the frontrunner to snag the Republican nomination for the 2024 presidential election, according to polls. But his candidacy has faced questions amid his various legal challenges as he hopes for a rematch of 2020 against President Joe Biden.

Trump has been charged in four separate criminal cases. Department of Justice (DOJ) Special Counsel Jack Smith charged him in two cases, one centering on alleged election interference and the other on alleged mishandling of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago residence. A Fulton County, Georgia grand jury indicted him on election interference charges, while Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg charged him with falsifying business records in relation to an alleged hush money payment made during his 2016 campaign.

Trump has denied all wrongdoing, pleading not guilty to all charges against him. He has accused prosecutors of targeting him for political purposes, including weakening his standing in the 2024 election.

But most recent polls show Trump may be favored to beat Biden in a hypothetical rematch, as he maintains a narrow lead against the incumbent president. However, these polls come with one significant caveat. Many of Trump's supporters would abandon his campaign in the case of a criminal conviction, causing his lead against Biden to dissipate, several recent polls have found.

Independent voters would be particularly moved by a Trump conviction, two recent polls have found.

A New York Times/Siena College poll released in November that was conducted among swing state voters found that 10 percent of independents said they would switch their vote from Trump to Biden in this scenario, compared to five percent of registered Democrats and four percent of registered Republicans.

Meanwhile, a Yahoo News/YouGov poll similarly found that support for Trump among independents would drop in the case of a conviction.

The poll found Trump leading Biden 44 percent to 36 percent among independents. If Trump were to be convicted, however, independent voters were torn between the two candidates, both of whom received 38 percent support from these voters.

Tammy Vigil, a senior associate dean at Boston University's College of Communication, told Newsweek on Tuesday a conviction would cause independent voters to rethink Trump's "witch hunt" narrative.

"For his core base, a conviction would not likely change anything, but for more pragmatic voters the possibility of jail time could move them toward more viable candidates. If voters want a Republican in office over a Democrat, they might be willing to compromise on a different candidate if Trump seems like he might be deemed ineligible," Vigil said.

The potential of a conviction could also reshape the Republican primary as more right-leaning independents could shift their support to other candidates who would be better suited to win undecided voters, Vigil said.

Trump's rivals, particularly former United Nations Ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley who has seen an uptick in polls, should be making an electability case against Trump, Vigil said. She said Haley may be able to reach moderate voters, pointing to Biden's troubling polls among youth voters.

"Especially with the youth vote shifting away from Biden, the opportunity to win the White House is quite real, but especially with a conviction, Trump would be a tough sell," Vigil said.

Newsweek reached out to the Trump campaign for comment via email.

Independents dropping Trump could help deliver Biden a victory, according to the polls. The Yahoo News/YouGov poll found Biden and Trump tied in a two-person race, each receiving support from 44 percent of respondents.

When respondents were pressed on who they would vote for if Trump is convicted of a "serious crime" ahead of the election, Biden secured a seven-point advantage. Forty-six percent of respondents said they would support him, while 39 percent said they would stick with Trump regardless of the conviction.

The Times/Siena poll found a four-point lead for Trump without a conviction. Forty-eight percent of respondents said they would back Trump, while 44 percent said they planned to Biden.

However, Trump's support drops to only 39 percent in the case of a conviction, the poll found.

Six percent of total voters said they would switch their vote from Trump to Biden. Four percent answered they would vote for "another candidate" or "not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices" each, while three percent said they did not know how they would vote.

The Yahoo News/YouGov poll surveyed 1,533 adults from December 14 to 18 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. The Times/Siena poll surveyed 3,662 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from October 22 to November 3. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.